Whoops on oil imports

Four week average, oil imports

Oil is badly quantized again

Oil price has been holding steady in the $90 range. and we get a sort dip into the $85 range, and oil imports jump.    Global oil allocations are still not smooth.

Volatile supply or demand?
Chinese bureaucrats got nervous, then winter got colder. That's the demand side.  On the supply side, OPEC tried to keep things stable,then Egypt erupted.   Who cares, the problem is oil remains constrained, and both supply and demand instability have too large an impact on oil flows.

How can we fix this?
Look at how late the DOE is in reporting imports, a month late.  That is the economic observation error.  Look at how rapidly Arabs revolt, China changes policy and fast winters happen.  Match event volatility to observation error, and conserve short term reserves to cover surprises.