Tuesday, October 8, 2013

What happens when the central bank supresses interest rates?

Brad claims that eventually equity managers will give up on financial profits and restart the retail sector. This claim is based on the inevitable of liquid banking, the money under pressure flows where it needs to.

He is wrong. If the Fed keeps pumping, the equity bubble increases and mergers and acquisitions becomes the order of the day.  There will be fewer but bigger TBTF brokers, and transactions sizes become larger.  But the money still remains in wall street. There is mainly one driver of debt, Congress and Wall Street will seek to reduce the number of transactions.  We end up in a situation where the JP Morgan CEO makes his periodic visit to the White House to determine the debt allotment for the year.

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