California and the American Recovery Act: Did the stimulus help?

 I investigate the stimulus on the California economy. I use the green line, oil prices, to tell me when the economy had finished contracting. California was likely completely contracted when oil hit the lowest point, New Years 2009. At that point, the economy had an CA unemployment rate (orange line)of 10%. The red line is stimulus spending. We are looking to see if the unemployment rate responded positively to the stimulus, did it start declining as the money was spent. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, so we would expect California unemployment to continue rising a bit after the contraction. The California unemployment rate started rising earlier than the national rate (purple) , and remained high for a period longer.

What is the normal California unemployment rate look like during recessions?

 I have Texas, California and the national rate all in one graph.  The 90s period kept California's rate high, the 2000s we see California back in alignment. Since the current crash California has done poorly.

We can say, I think, that something big is changing the California economy. California most likely responds negatively to the Clinton tax hike, and likely had a multiplier less than one for the stimulus. California is performing like it did under Pres Clinton, where we had no stimulus, just a tax hike.

Look at the 1982 recession and ignore Texas (savings and loan crisis).   California followed the national employment rate closely, and both dropped quite fast. Reagan actually decreased federal spending growth from 8% to 5%.

Keynesianism in DC likely is bad for California. Also tax policy in DC has been bad for California.  California just suffers from its association with DC.