NGDP and RGDP

Here I have the average of Real GDP growth divided by Nominal GDP growth , taken over various sized windows.  One can see the window size by noting the point at where the line starts for each of the three colors. The red, for example has the longest window size over which the average is taken.  The X axis is number of quarters. The data start in 1950 and goes through today.

Notice they all cycle about .5, why is that? Because the economy always computes enough Nominal GDP so that it can contain variation in Real GDP. Mean equals variance.  This is the Compton wavelength in physics, matter must be large enough to trap the variance of the light it contains. Economics is the same.  This is optimum queuing. It appears in the growth rate simply because the economy is built around net gain, or flow.

So the fiat banker has to take 'losses', actuarial losses to cover variation in real GDP.  This is not real money lost, it is the fiat banker doing fiat banking. The real question is cause and effect.  Does the economy need cycles to grow or is the fiat banker creating cycles? Dunno, still thinking.

But, Real GDP is the real change in inventories, counted using matched dollars, but counting real goods, if the bean counters have this accurate.  So, why does inventory have to fall and rise to make growth, if Real GDP is the cause here? The answer would be sphere packing, yet again.  The economy can pack more stuff into the sphere is some of the stuff is in motion, which is my unproven conjecture on sphere packing. In this case, the economy wants the arrival  variation to match the lines at the queue, and wants that to be constant. So it manages the service time at the queue until the folks in line are exactly right, likely two or three.  Here is a description of Poisson distribution:

In probability theory and statistics, the Poisson distribution (French pronunciation [pwasɔ̃]; in English usually /ˈpwɑːsɒn/), named after French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson, is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event.^[1] The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified intervals such as distance, area or volume.

 I have highlighted the appropriate term, independent arrivals.  That is the motion of arrivals must not be conditional upon each other.  That is the minimal redundancy condition. But that business cycle seems rather redundant,  it looks like an inefficiency.  Real GDP should be more of a random walk, so some inefficiency is introduced. Further, it looks like one inefficiency since we clearly have one unit root. Some queue in the economy is much slower and less able to adapt.

What happens when all the queues are equally congested?  We still have mean equals variance, but the variance would not be dominated a single queue, but spread out.  We would get less inflation.  So, the question becomes, who is the guilty party that is slow to adapt?