Robert Waldmann says what?

Angry Bear: This is quite important because, when one considers state and local spending too, there has been constant anti-Keynesian austerity since ARRA stimulus spending peaked. Thus a stone Keynesian would predict consistently disappointing growth (at least until the past 2 quarters see the graph).

Robert considers 2.2% real growth dissapointing. 

Compared to this: Which is real growth since the last 20 years. But the growth we have now exactly equals the growth we had since 2005.   Yet government spending, which Robert likes, was growing much faster in 2005, and it has been flat since 2011, when the stimulus peaked.

So how Robert claims that government spending does not crowd out is beyond me, it is clear that we had the crash because of government crowding, and it is clear the stimulus was crowding, we went through all that.  We looked at oil prices before and after the crash and discovered that oil prices caused the crash and oil prices peaked once again with the stimulus spending and nearly sent the economy into a double dip.

The data is quite clear on this. You can see on the upper graph that growth tended back down to 2.5%, even lower right at the peak of the stimulus.

Robert has no evidence, he has some theory that crowding out does not happen during this period, lets look again shall we?

See, oil damn near went back up to its peak, right at the crash.  I added the Illinois unemployment rate, where we can all look at.  Why did that rate start back up right when oil was peaking?  The stimulus crowding out. Notice the Illinois unemployment rate then stabilized as the sequester took hold. And finally, after the oil glut, it rapidly reduced.

We have looked at government spending before and after the crash, the government was mis-allocating oil.


When did growth real start again? When the frackers got going and now we have an oil glut and growth is peaking.  Robert Waldman, we need some comparative graphs, we are all tired of the Keynesian recipe book. I have yet to see any definitive study that explains the Keynesian relation ship between oil consumption and government spending.  Why did oil prices peak just before the crash, then peak just as the stimulus had peaked, then why the rise in Illinois unemployment.

This was supposed to be a defense of Noah Smith, and a quick glance we see no supporting comparisons, no graphs, nothing.  Just a quote from the Keynesians bible, and that is all I have ever seen from the Keynesians.  The only exception has been Cristina's bogus statistics which was simply boneheaded errors.

John Cochrane is right, and none of the so called Keynesians signers of the pledge has produced on basic proof of any o their claims, they have all been quotes from the recipe book.