Thursday, February 18, 2016

Labor market still healthy

DOL: The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 258,264 in the week ending February 13, a decrease of 32,227 (or -11.1 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 25,260 (or -8.7 percent) from the previous week. There were 277,904 initial claims in the comparable week in 2015. 

The seasonal adjuster expected more claims then filed   That is an indicator they we may be moving past Q1 as the recession start date.  This is not retail, this must be leftover construction workers keeping their jobs because of foreign investment and warm weather.  Construction workers are in a bit of a supply crunch.

Retail:

WalMart expecting flat sales growth in 2016, and the IMF has reduced global GDP estimates.

Housing, in particular the Asian home investor, has pushed us  past the brink, for now.

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