Friday, February 19, 2016

Price volatility

All consumer prices, not seasonally adjusted.  We see lower volatility in the 90s, then more volatility.  What else? Lower potential growth and lower transaction velocity.

Fewer transactions over time, the more time spent on price discovery.   The prices discovered are consumer purchases, and the American consumer is constrained by government imposed structure, regulations and taxes.  Instability, a result of the underestimated expense of trying to fit federal programs onto large and small states alike.  The result, increasing debt and inability to keep the entitlements coherent with demographics.  A much deeper problem than the Swampers can deal with.

Solution?

Honest probabilities with specified precision, untampered by humans.  And, the yellow/green light feed back to the consumer.  Add to that the prediction markets and smart card.  The voter stays  in tune, the smart card flashes the yellow when a price is not representative of the sequence.  Humans have a constant example of the typical events, they are optimally derived from the interaction of humans tapping and inventory moving..  So fraud is identified, it is a prediction not typical.

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