Then yield curve is a distribution of innovations discovered and marked to market. A steeper curve means smaller groups of school kids combine to make larger groups, each meeting strangers. Or, the ability to utilize combinatorics is maximized on the knee of the curve.
Example, if our goal is to cure every heart condition,then our medical industry will be organized to make maximum use of prime separable groups, that is liquidity; heart doctors forming groups of three and five, mixing it up among a sparse set of hospitals. Related to the Winnie Cooper spin theorem she solved on Wonder Years.
Bloombeerg: Battle-hardened emerging-market investors have seen this movie before: A U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate hike triggers a jump in nominal local rates in emerging markets, especially those with fixed or semi-fixed exchange rate regimes. Hot money flows out of developing nations, across FX, equity and fixed-income markets. Local currencies weaken against the dollar. And the ensuing jump in the cost of dollar liquidity, and declining portfolio flows, spark fears over the debt-servicing capacity of emerging-market borrowers.
In short, the boom-and-bust capital-flow cycles in emerging markets over the past three-decades have roughly followed this script.
Fast-forward to September 2016: markets are raising their bets that the Fed will hike rates this year — raising fears the post-Brexit-vote inflow party in emerging markets might ease, while international financial conditions, more generally, might tighten. Now, analysts say that the outlook for EM asset classes hinges on how the U.S. yield curve reprices in the coming months.
In short, the shape of the Treasury yield curve and the level of long-term U.S. real rates, in particular — rather than the absolute level of U.S. short-end rates — will be crucial in driving capital flows into emerging markets, analysts say.
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