Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Correcting the seasonal adjustment in labor


Calculated Risk: Construction was revised up by 40,000 jobs, and manufacturing revised up by 51,000 jobs.  The key downward revisions were for retail trade of -120,000, Professional and business services of -133,000 and education and health of -98,000.
This preliminary estimate showed 224,000 fewer private sector jobs, and 74,000 additional government jobs (as of March 2016).
That would be my theory.  Seasonal adjustment was off because of the Asian rebalance and warm weather.

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