Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Caterpillar is a White Swan today

Wall St. gains on 3M, Caterpillar earnings; Dow jumps

Caterpillar was doing poorly most of the recovery but in the past few years they have begun to grow sales, mainly due to mining (oil). So the recent jump in sales is not all hurricane business.

Caterpillar is a large and major player.  When they do well a whole complex of smaller vendors do well and volatility on the stock market drops. When volatility is low, the inverted PE ratio ends toward the one year treasury.

But the one year starts to look good when one can roll it over and get the ten year rate after a short waiting period.  The curve slope is low, and can't go much lower.  

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