However, in addition to rising debt, there is another, even more pressing risk: rising rates. According to Reuters, debt servicing costs - i.e., interest expense - now accounts for a fourth of state-owned firms’ revenues in the last few quarters. The ratio rose to around 27% in the second quarter - the highest in at least five years - before declining slightly to 24.47% in the third quarter due to a jump in revenues. Needless to say, with China's 10Y government bond yield and corporate spreads blowing out to 3 year wides, traders will be especially focused on what happens to Chinese interest expense in the coming months.Interest charges, they are quarter of the firms budget with a six percent variation. This makes it very difficult to estimate prices of goods and production costs. Hence, evaluating these firms becomes fraught with hidden information about internal access to funds.
Saturday, November 25, 2017
Egad!
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