Markov is ergodic, but Markov only gives us the dots on our graph paper.
We, the market of agents are not ergodic, we cannot be as we are always positively out of equilibrium with those points on the graph. We are a closed, self sampling mass of people, so we are estimating likelhood as we trade, we do not know it apriori. Trading space is a conserved quantity, liquidity, in any given Markov state. Our ex ante knowledge of the congestion is random, bound, positive error.
Network Remote ID technology would not raise the same concerns, Wing explains: “This method of RID leverages the internet — the most ubiquitous technological tool of our time — to share a drone’s location and identity information, like a license plate number, with anyone who has access to a cell phone or web browser,” says the response. “This allows a drone to be identified as it flies over without necessarily sharing that drone’s complete flight path or flight history, and that information, which can be more sensitive, is not displayed to the public and only available to law enforcement if they have proper credentials and a reason to need that information.”
This is google plot, actually a google spin off, Wing, plot.
Who enforces the contract? No matter the physical method of communication, the system still requires that the whole package, including GPS and flight controls, be hidden from human intervention, be counterfeit proof.
The drone, instead, has to identify the person responsible for flying the drone. The contract states:
I, the person releasing this drone, can be identified securely, and that I have a proven insurance contract and I have been registered with the FAA. If the person is not identified in a way that is counterfeit proof, then we shoot the drone down.
How does the observer know the ID is the proper one? The observer must carry the public decoding key for drones in his area. So the user must have a device.
The standards the Wing proposed I have not read, but i am certain they missed this whole issue. Wing will say that any drone I see that is on one of the correct flight paths will be insured by Wing. All drones in the area? The culprit follows a Wing drone. Once it is near the victims house, then Wing actually ends up responsible for all the drones. That would include the ones who bombed the victims house, good luck with that. The observer sees two drones, he wants to secure responses identifying the insurance company. Wing has not thought this completely out.
Wing has the same problem, personal secure identity is what is needed, and that means the unknown core and that means the NSA. Me, NSA, the flight control and the insurance have the same problem. We all want a human being to put their personal secure ID on the drone. nothing else works. secret bots must execute the identity protocol. And for the most part, independent observers need a public key, and that means the same technology is likely ending up in their hands.
If Wing makes he drones it is entirely possible for them to counterfeit proof the drone to their liking at the factory. But that still means some human installs a secure personal identity. I still have to worry about exact duplicates.
Folks, we will have it, the unknown core, Apples desired solution. Then we can chain contracts sufficient to solve these problems. I think Microsoft has suddenly agreed. We will Spectre proof.
Bank manager have authority to act as trustees over an account.
Any bank client can ask the trustee to put their account on the stable coin ledger using he trustee agreement, perfectly legal, The trustee agreement only allows withdrawals that also updates the stable coin ledger. The provable contract is a public proof of stake ledger managed inside the solidify code.
In fact, any fiat bank can use this ledger or any other equal stable coin ledger managed by another fiat bank. The account moneys flagged as stable coins must be taken off reserve status, that is all the central bank need to see.
There is nothing for central banks to do to create stable coins, they can already exist. No new technology, we already have working stable coin contracts in Solidify. No new law needed.
These stable coins work just like check writing, and merchants have the responsibility to manage fraud by keeping the ledger up to date. Merchants can hold stable coin transaction, and clear accounts at the end of day for folks they trust.
Thus, we do not have bearer asset, yet.
Peter Schiff has been saying that all of the “help” the US government and the Federal Reserve have offered up during the coronavirus pandemic isn’t helping. In fact, it’s made the situation worse. In a podcast last month, Peter said that all of the money printing and stimulus allowed people to keep spending, but they aren’t producing anything.
Nope. Productivity still works fine, it is just hidden from the Fed in the shadow banks. The Fed books are thus uncertain, but your shadow books are still working fine.
The real problem is the Fed no longer is a banker, it is now a permanent tax collector. We will pay the Fed taxes on entry and exit as we need to clear taxes, but central banking is now done elsewhere by large investment banks. The cost is not of productivity, but of the extra steps needed to clear taxes, and the crowding out of states and cities who longer have tax opportunities.
We do not want this inefficient tax precisely because it makes fiat transactions uneconomical and thus not taxable and this is killing the locals. It is fiat banking itself which has lost productivity. But the fiaters have some neat technology which we can leverage if we can pull the Fed out of its tax collection business.
We are in the middle of a banking crisis, none of the FRED aggregate stats will make sense.
Poulos’s comments were detailed in a Tempe police report recently released to The Arizona Republic as part of a public records request. A Tempe police detective interviewed the sergeant and the other five officers who were at the meeting with Poulos
Hero for the season.
He eliminated a batch of congestion so a few poor people are not stuck third in line.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar hit a more than two-year low against the euro on Tuesday, and riskier currencies including the Australian and Canadian dollars gained as optimism that U.S. lawmakers would enlarge stimulus payments to individuals boosted risk sentiment.
The thing about the trilemma is you have one market maker fending from two angles. The market maker ends up thrid in line and the pegs go hardwire.
If we let treasury, independently, and Constitutionaly have a small double spending budget then Treasury can lower the dollar value, by itself and the fed can still keep up with the S/L business, and we get free capital flows. Mathematical independence, the Treasury can execute its double spending in parallel with the Fed without consultatation or collisions.
Thus, if we want a slightly cheaper dollar, it is up to Treasury on the 'when and where' and we do not need a bunch of financial reporters attempting to reverse engineer some Keynesian bait and switch Rube Goldburg monstrosity.
Here is how our current central banker works:
The disparity was highlighted in a scathing report by the state auditor’s office as one of many flaws contributing to California’s affordable housing crisis. Researchers and auditors say the state’s approach to financing and planning housing units is uncoordinated and ineffective, and one way rich cities have been able to build far less affordable housing units than their inland and less-wealthy counterparts is to lobby during the planning stages. It’s a crucial step because once local jurisdictions receive their allocation of housing units, they must make a plan to build them.
We need a poor person's emission trading market. If you build 100 units for the wealthy, you have to buy a poor person;s offset from the market. We can then trade poor people, like cattle.
As reported this is at least a refreshing breath of honesty. In all I have read (not everything, it's a mountain) of the BoE, ECB, BIS, OECD, IMF treatment of "climate risk," there is a vague insinuation that climate itself poses a "risk," which is utter nonsense.
Is is John Cochrane complaining about central banks regulated markets, actually. I did not read it, but rest assured this is about central banks collecting taxes on Green stuff to subsidize government doing Brown stuff. Another version of California taxing energy efficiency to subsidize energy inefficieny.
We are going to have another big mess all over the place.
McConnell signaled separately that he could package the increase in direct stimulus checks, with a repeal of a tech shield that has emerged as a top target for Trump and election-related investigations. Trump, in his statement on signing the $2.3 trillion package, said the Senate would "start the process for a vote" that tackles the three issues.
"During this process, the president highlighted three additional issues of national significance he would like to see Congress tackle together," McConnell said.
"Those are the three important subjects the president has linked together. This week the Senate will begin a process to bring these three priorities into focus," he added.
So, in essence, McConnell is planning to kill the idea with a fake attempt at legislation.
That move is almost as smart as Bernie's filibuster plan. At this point, cooler heads would say, yes, bury all this crap until the new legislature arrives. There is no way Nancy is going to carry her thousand page earmark catalog around through New Years.
We are in an odd moment when everyone except the fanatics want the place to just shut down until Jan 3. And that, folks, is not a multiplier greater than one.
So we can expect the dollar decline continues. The trilemonnators will be harassing Yellen to peg the dollar back up. Oil prices above 50 will slow things down a bit.
Twitter is a mess with their reversing of order, getting threads backwards, and mis-labeled controls.
For twenty years this chart has been continuously posted showing Reagan to be the biggest government welfare spender and bailout chief of all time. Only exceeded during the crash. Even after the crash the level of government spending was below Reagab's. And yet again, we have Krugman saying he was small government.
The U.S. dollar is facing its highest volume of short positions in three years, according to new data. Compiled by the CFTC and Bloomberg, the data reveals that short volumes have grown to almost ten thousand contracts in less than four months.
Looks like the dollar should hit a bottom, reaching the 2017 level. Just speculating a bit though.
Hypnosis, now going virtual, is gaining more acceptance from doctors, researchers and entrepreneurs. But potential patients remain skeptical
I like dogs, even voted for one as president. Cannot stop watching cute dog videos.
But there is no covid in this chart and the pattern seems clear. We have increasingly long slogs.
So how does covid killing a half million people cause this pattern to change? Time Travel?
Error 1 was ceasing to run balanced budgets. Error 2 was appointing Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman. The second error was the bigger one. (Dishonorable mention goes to the Greenspan commission on Social Security, which made our future problems there worse.) Greenspan did not let recessions do their work, eliminating malinvestment. He cut recessions short, and as malinvestment increased, GDP grew slower than it otherwise would have. The resultant trajectory of interest rates went down creating the problem that as they got lower monetary policy got closer to the zero bound, where changing interest rate became less and less effective.
Each cycle the Fed takes longer to get back to neutral as the sheet grows. We see that in the velocity slowing. Eventually, like today, velocity goes to one and the Fed is blind as a bat, is targets are always noisier and noisier as velocity slows.
A number of House Republicans who previously opposed Democrats’ proxy voting system to let lawmakers vote remotely during the pandemic have begun embracing it in recent weeks.
We need journalists who state the headline rather than suggest it.
A group of House Republicans met last week with Trump and Vice President Mike Pence to discuss strategies to contest the Electoral College results when they are certified in a joint session of Congress on Jan. 6. Among those who attended the meeting were Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.), Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Rep.-elect Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). Hice tweeted afterward: "The courts refuse to hear the President's legal case. We're going to make sure the People can!”
They are damaged, they have states rights to taxation at the state level absent Congressional approval. Congress never approved arbitrary taxes. Congress only approved remits of profits taken during its normal operation. But the fed is both arbitrary in is taxation, large, and distorts the government bond market.
States have been robbed of the right to retail taxes as velocity is suppressed by fed actions. There is a good case for infringement, maybe not rock solid, but to visit the Supremes.
The governors have to force the issue, then separately force the revenue sharing agreement through the senate. The Supremes can order a meeting of the elders and save us all a lot of hassle. It kicks us past the threat of another Nixon Shock.
In terms of current technology.
I have IBM Watson running the insurance layer and below that Alpha zero running the liquidity pits.
The liquidity pits are always finite memory, maximum entropy. Alpha Zero is constantly a half step ahead trimming the trade books to maximum entropy followed by hordes of traders.
IBM Watson is perfectly willing to do relativity correction and sync with your clock. It will do most of the over the counter trades, repurchase notes, insure long term debt, and hold hosted wallets. It is the 'oracle' done correctly.
Alpha Zero is about network stability in the pits is maximizing entropy and keep access fair priced. It is finding the economies of scale to carry network messages, like a decomposing distribution network. IBM Watson lets Alpha Zero trade units of time, which is kind of fun, we trade anything in the sandbox, but it does not change the tune of pure liquidity. So IBM makes hard assets out of volatile assets, like a manufacturing company.
Black Scholes in the top layer, Markov down below.
An aggregate trying to do triple entry accounting when double entry is only available in the markets.
If you reducer the problem to pit bosses and traders it become clear, the traders crowd out the pit boss from reading the peg. Traders come from capital flows, and the pit boss trying to set rate simultaneously, it is impossible to stabilize the ledger. The pit boss does not have the sample rate, unless all the pits were triple entry. If the trades were tri party then all traders slow down letting the pit boss stay one step ahead and keep the ledger.
The solution comes when I pretend this is all automated bots on a graph, in essence. A probable istice version of spin on a lattice. ,Homo economicus, (the trader) has one motive, do not be third in line in a double entry trade, do not be fourth in a triple entry trade, and so on. For computer folks this is exactly stable protocol theory. The nodes are trading pits, sort of trade books which keep the most recent, finite history of trades. This never remembers back more than a few steps, it relies on traders to come prepared.
Queuing theory on the nodes bridges the gap with spectral theory and leads us back to fractional approximation and that gives us relative prime theory, this is neat stuff and mathematicians need to jump on this and makes bucks everywhere.
The credit cost needed to correct government disruptions in goods. Credit is used to adjust supply and demand imbalances. This follows.
I went through the numbers after revenue sharing hedged most of it. The rate is small, less than one. But toward equilibrium is toward price neutrality. Paying for the residual government wobble with an inflation tax is likely an equilbriating move, if accompanied by revenue sharing in the 'pits'. Pit is important, it is Coasian. We want those bidding wars once a budget. The resulting hedge will always minimize the safe rate, our Fed taxes gone.
The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk.12 The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Volatility is a measure of the price fluctuations of an asset or portfolio.First one needs to estimate the risk free rate when it is composed of Fed taxes and interest charges. Our Fed is doing the trilemma, the bond market is distorted and the monopoly free risk rate has to be backed out from the various hedges that track the tax. The risk free is about two percent, after hedges are added in. Under the conditions we have today, many economists will foul this up though a few get it right.
Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. The risk-free rate of return is the return on an investment with zero risk, meaning it's the return investors could expect for taking no risk. The yield for a U.S. Treasury bond, for example, could be used as the risk-free rate.
Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) said in a joint interview Sunday that the coronavirus pandemic has strengthened communication and relations between state leaders in the Midwest.
Nor are they hiding their identities on the subject of getting clues. A slight improvement from the concept of deliberate ignorance. The whole process reminds me of herding chickens.
Trump and Krugman agree, shutting down the Swamp altogether clears the air. Keep it shut until Febuarary,....,2027.
Why has Trump apparently blown up the economic relief deal? I don't care, and neither should anyone else. In 24 days we can stop worrying about this terrible person's motives, and focus on the GOP backed him all the way. But there are more interesting questions
Says Paul Krugman on his twitter.
Leave the defense department shut until the inauguration, fine with me. Accept multipliers are below one, fine with me. Put Congress on leave, fine with me. Let the governors stew and possible get clues, fine with me.
I can add some stuff? Dig up McCain's corpse and burn it. Declare Tom Cotton a permanent retard. Shut down Bernie and the Godotists. We should track down Devin Nunnes cardboard cows and take them away. And during this period we can contemplate the New Fed contract.
Larry appears to be worried that across-the-board checks will overheat the economy, leading to inflation. Again, I agree that the economy is likely to recover fast once there's a vaccine, so that demand-side stimulus won't be crucial. But inflationary pressure? Not a worry
Righto. as long as we continue to support regressive Fed taxes and subsidies to the wealthy then we will not have inflation. The real fear is deflation leading to an overnight Nixon Shock, and that would put most central bankers into a state of psychosis. Do we really want jay Powell running through the streets blithering?
Then he contradicts himself
In a secstag economy you actually want the government pushing up demand with deficit spending, even when there isn't a crisis. Better if that spending takes the form of public investment, but as with extended UI, that's not on the table right now
You just discovered that government multipliers are less than one. You have also discovered Jay Powell's regressive VAT tax. You have always known that deficits pump up the super wealthy. Making the rich richer has always been part of the Keynesian plan.
I think Paul is going through a moment of confusion.
Jack Montgomery at Breitbart reports that June Sarpong, a former MTV host who is now the part-time diversity czar for the British Broadcasting Corporation, told the London Telegraph that “There is unfairness baked into our system” and insisted that “white privilege” is a fact and white people “will never be discriminated against” for their race.From racial quotas to diversity hiring in government I have never noticed a moment in my career where whites are not discriminated against. But I am only one person from California, and California is a failed Hispanic state.
I skipped Stephanie Skelton's book as most reviewers consider it a politico manifesto of unconnected ideas.
But, ignore all the delusions and stick with her inflation tax vs real tax. How much inflation do we suffer? less than two percent. But the real federal taxes are closer to 15-20 percent of GDP; a one to ten ratio.
The proposed inflation tax is not that large, relatively speaking, and should be about the same as Fed siegniorage taxes. So, it seems to me, why suffer the trilemma of having the Fed collect the inflation tax and cause deflation? Fix the trilemma problem, let Treasury implement the inflation tax, Congress implements real taxes, and the central bank is much closer to market neutrality.
This part of MMT makes perfect sense, just ignore the delusions about getting 'nice things'. What we really get is accurate money and markets less distorted by the trilemma.
Fit this idea in the culture of post Nixon Shock syndrome. Having Skelton inject a politico manifesto only makes the solution more difficult, she unnecessarily freaks out the hysterics at the Fed
The net results are obvious hedges as the dollar declines against increasing Fed taxes. Think of a super highway direct from middle class bank accounts to super wealthy.
HONG KONG (AP) — Chinese regulators have ordered Ant Group, the world’s largest financial technology company, to rectify its businesses and comply with regulatory requirements amid increased scrutiny of anti-monopoly practices in the country’s internet sector.
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, summoned Ant executives on Saturday and ordered them to formulate a rectification plan and an implementation timetable of its business, including its credit, insurance and wealth management services, the regulators said in a statement Sunday.
Rep. Mac Thornberry, the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, is urging GOP lawmakers to tune out "distortions or misrepresentations" of annual defense policy legislation ahead of veto override vote next week.
The dumbshit needs to talk in code as most Repubs cannot understand plain English. All of them in a state of confusion and hysteria, just like Hillary campers. There is no way this crew can salvage this situation. Wait until the inauguration, then let Romney explain the facts to the hysterical repubs.
Money down at the bottom is way too tight. Credit card rates astronomical. And churn way too high.
We need a better risk equalization. If I am a lousy risk, fine, put me in the lousy risk category, but the cost of churn is way to high to have me go on and off the cards.
Credit should always be there, even at some enormous fee. The idea is to let us keep the credit identity in the card format, just reprogram it as my risk changes.
There is no reason for credit failure to make out identity disappear. In my case, it was tax disputes, but the idea still holds, let me have a credit card in the risk group called tax cheats. I do not mind, I would still want the programmable card.
Payments through near field communication technology (NFC) are seeing a steady increase in Brazil, with 285% growth in November 2020 in relation to the same month last year, according to research.
The study published by Rede, the payments arm of Brazilian bank Itaú Unibanco, also noted that transactions using NFC through channels such as e-wallets, smartwatches and cards equipped with the technology have seen a steady monthly increase of about 20% since May 2020.
Technology presses the central banks.
We have a fundamental problem. It does not work to have fiat bankers protect the sanctity of debt markets and apply a coin age tax.
The sedigniorage tax must be restored to Treasury as a limited inflation tax. Yellen and Powell have figured this out, I am sure. Bernanke never intended this to become a permanent tax.
British expat business owner Michael Soffe said that in Spain: “Bank charges have risen quite substantially. And they all want you to have insurance with the banks.”
The cost increases have began to shift business to banks who work digitally. Their lower cost structures allow them thinner margins, which means less fees for customers.
Joe Fielding at Bain & Co. in New York said: “Whenever there is a negative customer experience in a traditional bank, it opens the door for someone to come along and do it better. Better in today’s terms is inevitably digital.”
Checking accounts are not reserve balances, so the reserve balances drop. But we will not know it until the end of the month. When Fed reserve balances drop, then seigniorage taxes go up and the collar drops in value.
Hence the infinite money loop. The wealthy take some reserves and buy bitcoin, then move the rest of reserves to checking accounts. They wait one month, everyone sees the new higher seigniorage fees and the dollar drops. Then the wealthy sell their bitcoin for more dollars than they spent.
Wash rinse and repeat. It is an infinite loop, it is the side effect that worried Powell, and it is an infinite money maker and will shake the system to its core. Powell is stuck. He indicated this game will go for eight or more years, and there is no escape. Given the current status quo, about ten people will own every dollar in the economy, and you can bet Soros is one of them. We be screwed, we be ready to devalue and stop the madness.
