Sunday, December 27, 2020

Money buys you a spot in line

Understanding Money?

  • Money allows us to always be second or first in line at the stores with petty cash /
  • Deposits and loans allow us to buy extra inventory when the liner is short, and skip the purchase when the line is long.
  • The standard automated S/l simply allows people over the monetary zone to adjust the line lengths toward the stable point.

The stale point is when all of us, on average, suffer a line length of 1.5 people on average and clerks suffer a 0.5 average line length.  The consumer's basket will always be two thirds full. Martkov condition for 3 tuple gives the result, it is ultimately all about congestion management. On net, all parties, buyers and sellers and bankers, will meet the Shannon bandwidth for measurable aggregates. There is residual uncertainty, ex post innovations needing to be expensed. 

Then the rest of the story is the inherent distortion caused by government and central banking.  But that too can be hedged and the original definition preserved.

Anyone who has ever work investment will talk about crowded trades, or use chart analysis and that is all about congestion management.  Basically, congestion management over value chains is what economics is all about.

If I were to read all of the suggested references in the link have, I would do the same as I always do. Convert the model into a congestion model, translate terms, correct the central bank and government distortions and remove time from the equations, moving it up to the insurance layer.  After that I get the results above.

In the doule entry accounting system, one homo economicus exists, no one want to be third in line. No stores, dealers, brokers, dentists ort quarks will support the third person in line, that is an aliased situation in a balanced congestion model and leads to cycles.  We have cycles, we have cycles because the government wobble is built in to the Constitution and unhedged. by the state governors. If you told the citizens of each state that they should always be first or second in line for a Swamp revenue sharing, then productivity would likely just 3% across the economy, and jump by 15% across the government channel.

The book you want is a book called Markov n-tuples in closed, congested systems. The theory of self sampled systems.  These books are out there, I have seen then scattered. We need one good solid reference on the subject, and it is also likely out there somewhere.

If you doubt this theory then  go shopping at a mid sized grocery store and watch how they manage checkout lanes.  Especially Walmart, they have this down to a science. It is about congestion over value added nets and residual errors. The theory is widely used in finance for portfolio balancing; erplacing Black-Sholes.  Black Sholes suffers from the risk free rate mistake. Read history, there is no safe rate, just very slow sampling.  Our central bank was able to let its balance sheet rise for thirty years, that is a long sampling rate so one needs a closed model to capture it. This is the model.

 

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