Hand out cash to state capitals paid for with an energy tax. They will be forced to spend in energy efficient manner, perhaps even saving some on deposit.
Since the tax is domestic, Texas is still free to export oil.
Hand out cash to state capitals paid for with an energy tax. They will be forced to spend in energy efficient manner, perhaps even saving some on deposit.
Since the tax is domestic, Texas is still free to export oil.
The two year rate now .16 and the on year at .05 My long observation tells me a 15 basis point difference will get a bond trader on the job. At that point Congress gets into a battle over interest charged and Janet begins borrowing the one year. The Fed follows and we get a rate cycle while the Senators figure out how to pay the sudden increase in interest charges.
From the time Biden assumed power until now, the interest charges have increase by about 260 billion. That is a 5% hole in the budget and the Californians are quite shaken in their beliefs of free money. We are about two weeks away from rate cycle if the ten year yield keeps rising at its daily rate.
Saudi press accuses US of supporting terrorism, abusing human rights
Texas has not joined OPEC and is not likely to. The Saudis want oil at 70, their minimum. Bu that triggers the Texas frackers. Texas is the new OPEC on the block.
The Texans are backed by Congress who is willing to suffer ten year yields of two percent, keeping the dollar high and oil cheap.
The frackers cannot make it work at these prices. Petrobanks have their work cut out, and Chinese yuan is buying a lot of that oil. Petrodollar requires Texas as a marginal exporter. The Saudis are not cooperating.
This is basic econ 101, the sole monopoly problem.
There is every reason to apply this econ model to central banking and central government. Accept it as fact and ask yourself: "Self, what is the most efficient method for central government to take its excess profits?"
Faking it just fouls up the econs until they are nearly hysterical freaks.
Yes. We update the capital key – and therefore the amount that each central bank pays – once every five years and whenever the number of countries in the EU changes.When Germany grows faster than the other nations, the euro becomes a loser for them until the next five year allotment.
The two most extreme aspects of the Biden tax plan each have political pitches behind them that are at least plausible. The 12.4 percent payroll tax for Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance is capped for 2021 on a wage base of $142,800. Biden would apply the tax to income above $400,000. That, not the increase to 39.6 percent from 37 percent, would be the real hit to high-income earners in the Biden plan. The combined effect—39.6 percent plus 12.4 percent—would be that at the margin, the federal government would take 52 percent, or more than half, of dollars earned over $400,000. There's an additional Medicare tax of 3.8 percent, which would take the top federal marginal tax rate up to 55.8 percent.
Looks like a total 17% jump in taxes, marginally, for the upper bracket. There is also an increase in the corporate rate. This is within a can kick, he could pull it off. Wait until the middle states respond.
b.The global oil storage market is expected to witness a compound annual growth rate of 5.3% from 2020 to 2027 to reach 2550.8 million cubic meters by 2027.
Oil storage is growing two points faster than world growth. It helps stabilize supply through the myriad of unstable events the production system suffers. The corollary is that the petrodollar is easily sustained.
For the petrodollar, there is a lot of nonsense that our current Fed can handle another 4 trillion in debt, on top of the next stimulus plan. No such fantasy exists when we are on the oil commodity standard, and the investment we made after the 2008 oil shock is there and maintains our oil independence.
We are left with a humongous tax battle, less spending, or a new monetary system. I suspect the taxes and spending will be watered down substantially and Powell an Yellen will attempt a can kick.
Greenies are stuck, they need oil and lots of it to build their public transit trains. States have had their fill of empty trains, they want the cash (oil) for their own use.
The Washington Post reported Monday that the package will include up to $4 trillion in new spending to be partially financed by more than $3 trillion in revenue from new tax hikes—significantly more tax revenue than the $1 trillion in tax hikes the White House originally planned.
According to the Post, the tax hikes were bumped up to account for concerns that the gap between spending and revenue in the original proposal was too high and could destabilize the economy.
That new tax makes this a long, long effort. The federal gas tax is 18 cents, been that way forever. That means corporate taxers and income taxes. That is a fight with the larger states, they need that tax. The only tax changes I have heard of was Schumer's, granting tax breaks to New York first and second home owners who are wealthy. We will see how Biden threads the needle.
Even when the Covid-19 downturn is finally past us, operators will have to continue exploring new avenues for cost reductions to be better equipped to withstand future market declines. In a report that looked into the adoption of robotics across the petroleum industry, Rystad Energy found that existing solutions could replace hundreds of thousands of oil and gas jobs globally and reduce drilling labor costs by several billion dollars by 2030, if there is an industry push for such a transition.
One of the segments with much to gain from the adoption of robotics is drilling, as it is highly cost-intensive and involves carrying out dangerous tasks in challenging environments. Robotic solutions have already been introduced successfully in drilling operations, with companies such as Nabors at the development forefront.
Like having a fiat Fed, cheaper on energy use than bitcoin.
The petro banks are keeping the dollar buoyant, keeping oil lower cost as long as the marginal Texas frackers can live with it.
Looks like a taxing time are the Fed:
It is touch and go as Biden continues to drive the deficit higher. At some time the Fed will run out of markets to tax and there is no time for a tax fix.
Arellano: Woke California pays homage this week to another American hero with a complex legacy
United Farm Workers founder Cesar Chavez, whose birthday is celebrated in California this week, had many faults. He was only human, after all.
How did they cancel the original farmer workers organizer? Jumipero was the founding father of Hispanic, he got cancelled and they praise Cesar?
The mayor-turned-Transportation secretary is tasked with turning "infrastructure week" from a punchline into a reality.
Infrastructure weeks are here to stay for at least a year. It is a long time before we can consider actual government investment, as opposed to bailouts.
Though Democrats haven’t made any formal moves on the idea yet, statehood for the District of Columbia is very much on their wish list. Ostensibly, it would cure a constitutional anomaly that gives the residents of the District no voice in Congress other than a nonvoting delegate in the House. In a country born under the slogan, “No taxation without representation,” it’s more than a bit embarrassing that citizens of that country’s capital city are taxed without representation.
In the middle of tax wars the rallying cry is heard. But it is not just DC, it is all of us paying a Fed seigniorage tax, set by fiat. The spending might justify the tax, but doing so without Congress support is risky in America.
Sen. Steve Daines: “Twenty years ago in Montana, meth was homemade. It was homegrown. And you had purity levels less than 30%. Today the meth that is getting into Montana is Mexican cartel.”
In Montana where usage is slightly higher today.
He makes the point that it is not home grown, iy is coming from Mexico, that state just south of California where Pelosi's pals hang. Cartel means California in political lingo, everyone knows where the failed state is.
It is fluid, easy to transport to a central location. If you burn it in concentration then Co2 collection becomes more economical. If we need frackers, let's collect their natural gas, get more carbon burning, yes. But a greater portion of it carbon burning a very long periods, with collection.
Oil back up, ten year back at 1.64. The 1.74 on the ten year was a market bounds from some OPEC rebellion. Petro banking is in the saddle.
First black yesterday, now red today:
President, some Democrats fret over inequities from pricing carbon, despite lack of evidence
And it will be quite a shocker once we realize that Texas oil exports pay for Green jobs.
I also notice the Janet is neck deep in taxes, monetary reform is not coming anytime soon. The thinking is that if Janet cannot get more taxes then is is Fed Vat tax all the way.
Californians trying to restrict and tax carbon. oNt too popular.
Fourteen U.S. states sue Biden administration over oil and gas leasing pauseYellen Pledges to Work With Congress on Ways to Ease SALT Cap
At the maximum expression for N relative primes the we get the best estimate of Phi.
The estimate is N/(/N-1) Exponent to an integer fraction will estimate Phi. Thus, any lesser irrational is estimated to best fractional approximation.
And a little manipulation sees how this might work with Pi when Phi -becomes log(phi,pi).
The best estimate of Pi as a N/(N-1) to some factional. So, just estimate Phi itself and we get 109 = (01 + 17)/91, oddly. There are an extra 17 combinations to sum up to maximum extent.
So finding the fraction estimate of Pi, for example.
Pi must be the best rational; option, and it a ratio of powers of Phi. Its exponential that makes Phi again must force the log Phi to an exponentiation which leaves Phi to the power of one. But we now Phi to its maximum etant is we say in one dimension. The other side of Markov has to make Phi again, but you have inserted Pi, the ongoing estimate. You have translated the conditions into engineering units because Pi is the transcendental for Pi r^2, and you have put those conditions into the left side. It is the same with finding the best fractional for e, euler's number. If you insert the conditions o e in the left side of the equation,m then, keeping dimension, there is a search path.
Senate Republicans are split on whether to embrace or reject the return of earmarks as the caucus leans into deficit concerns under the Biden administration.We can solve this because we know the market is always positive, always present in the congestion. The issue is the level of predictive consensus the market brings. How honest can we get about the process. The honest route is the other end, go as liquid and transparent as possible, and make it cash to the governors.
With House Republicans voting last week to join congressional Democrats in supporting the return of the federal spending, which allows members to secure money for specific projects back home, the Senate Republican Conference is now the odd person out on Capitol Hill.
But there are sharp lines of division about the path forward, with conservatives pledging to fight any decision by leadership to return to earmarks and top appropriators signaling a willingness to reengage.
You get double whitening, and you have multiple solutions to reestablish the 4D surface. The closed ring on the Lie graph is mass, the surface to center hole. Empty space in the hole is mass in 3D but curvature in relative primes.
We will measure all solutions in units of entropic maximum. So we get a multi-estimate estimaie of Pi, good enough if scaled in partitions. That is why the maximum extant multiplies that fD multiplier giving the proton mass. That is the 3D contraction map. In 4D their is a slight chiral we cannot see, and appears as mass, but it is oriented vacuum.
Standard model and relativity working the same problem from different end points. One is finding the taget vectors for a centered gravity, the other braking into partitions to equalize Pi every whee. Like working abstract algebra from smooth manifold or best fractional approximation. One gets the necessary integral solution, the other the best probable.
The point where the maximum entropic extent is reached, the vacuum increase dimension N by adding a second prime curvature. Hence the second dimension of surface, the well effect. The relativity equationds work backwards to the standard 3 D version with a correction term.
The entropic limit gets expanded with another surface to stuff round off error.
In standard model it is small scale, but the 3D system is restored whenever we perturb the system through a 3D aperture, we make the 3D system as a result of the aperture doing Einsteins equation.
The Markov 3-tuples and physics share a coherent equivalence in dimensionality
The unproven speculation is that we are naturally toroidal, but cannot observe that locally.
The Black hole effect is simply where any 3D aperture will be maximally entropic and cannot discern the curvature. That number, the dimensional Avogadro, will scale from standard model up to gravity. It is always the quasi inverse of the round off error. The length of the irrational round off decimal grows until maximum entropy point. But it should be limited by dimension, so we must live on a closed 4D surface. We would have many more, but smaller big bangs. Torus being slightly unstable. Bouncing between dimension, the 3D dimension is real, locally; but we still get hints of the fourth.
Petrodollar banks. The yield, dollar value and oil price very closely watched. Then the external element, FX insurance. The latter should be risk neural in flows, this is the equivalent fee. These banks trade treasuries on the run evidently, and make oil purchases. It works, and the oil peg is about 65, and they get Saudi rebellion near 70 bucks.
The price is fair, in my opinion, this is kind of a flexible commodity standard based on a commonly used material.
New variants. I think they die out soon, but they are bursting. have covid my victory to Q3, one quarter back. We will miss out on summer.
They are a loop. The front runners and hedgers run the loop and collide; we then price the loop costs and make a value added net. But for government, they have a Constitutional duty to ash, rinse and repeat on this.
Like, do not add yield curve control when you already grabbed devalue/revalue.
Politically,m tackle the productivity problem correctly. It is in the federal system, we know where the congestion is, insert the market we need. That gets you yield curve control. Government is the one setting term length as a bet. Put the yield curve control market there, it is a liquidity swap, quit pretending the government channel is a smooth manifold.
At 1.68, a bit high but 1.72 was out of range. Th petrodollar banks want oil prices closer to 70. Like I say, petrodollar banks need Texas to be a marginal exporter, ready to protect their petrodollar when hit shits the fan.
Take some N relative primes defined by:
sum of their squares equals N * their product. Since the relative primes will have fractions of mod N, then we know the number of fractional combinations is N/(N-1) ^ the product.
But we can then use Hurwitz theorem to prove there is an finite error for which the ratio maximizes an irrational approximation. Thge maximum entrop extant, an Avogrado'1 number, is fixed per any inter number of relatice primes, N. Beyond that we must use N+1 primes.
In number theory, Hurwitz's theorem, named after Adolf Hurwitz, gives a bound on a Diophantine approximation. The theorem states that for every irrational number ξthere are infinitely many relatively prime integers m, n such that
Republicans are aiming to stir up a legal battle over Biden's pandemic relief bill, targeting a provision in the American Rescue Plan they say is an unconstitutional infringement on states' ability to devise their own tax policies.
A provision in the bill that forbids states from using billions in aid to offset any tax cuts they might implement has sparked a backlash from Republican lawmakers and state attorneys general. Their criticisms could lay the groundwork for a court battle over states' rights and government overreach akin to the Supreme Court case over the fate of ObamaCare.
Last ten years, absent covid, we grew by 2.0-2.3%
Seems like a good enough measure. We got back to near normal in about two years from the 2008 crash.
What about the sudden rate hike? Add in a tax battle, we had one in 2011, survived it.
Perhaps the most troubling is a legislative rider barring states that accept the aid from using the funds “to either directly or indirectly offset a reduction in the net tax revenue” derived “from a change in law, regulation, or administrative interpretation during the covered period that reduces any tax (by providing for a reduction in a rate, a rebate, a deduction, a credit, or otherwise) or delays the imposition of any tax or tax increase.”
This suggests that, for the duration of the spending program, if a state accepts these funds it can’t pursue meaningful tax reform or, for example, use tax incentives for their citizens to secure the best educational options for their children through vouchers or tax credits. Permanent spending increases? Fine. Rewards for failed policies? No problem. Lower state taxes? No way
And definitely will result in a challenge at the Supremes.
This is the Cal Teaches union, and they applied the same restriction in reverse, demanding a tax increase as part of a contract settlement. At the federal level this is not valid law.
ANKARA/ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan fired central bank governor Murat Uysal on Saturday and replaced him with ex-finance minister Naci Agbal, acting after a 30% plunge in the lira currency’s value to record lows this year.
The lira plunged because Erdogan is a dufas who interferes with debt banking. Turkey may have become another fubar state.
That means iceland, the volcano has erupted. News people will be in chaos with the spelling of terms.
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is $20.5 billion in the hole, even after Congress canceled $16 billion in debt in 2017. This financial shortfall is largely because the program does not charge nearly enough in premiums to pay for the flood damage on the properties it insures. For decades, taxpayer bailouts of the NFIP have enabled people to live and build in flood-prone areas instead of bearing the risks themselves.
Yet another Next New Green Deal is that same fraud as the last Next New green Deals. If you tx carbon, our government swill subsidize carbon for their pals. The net result is poverty and more co2 emissions. Look at California's wasted and inefficient transit, for example.
Most politicians know the fraud, it is not going anywhere.
Reports confirm,,, he feared losing his twinky.
It is a nightmare, NRA gun nuts and the castration anxiety. We will need to spray fentanyl across rural areas of Texas Georgia, and Florida. Mass innoculation against the castration anxiety and the twinkers. Whenever I see one of the gun nutters I think of Rick Scott and mass shootings, for some reason. Sometimes the Instapundit guy comes to mind.
The accelerating rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in many advanced economies has set the stage for rapid recovery in the second half of this year and into 2022. Although growth in digital and digitally enabled sectors will level out somewhat, high-employment service industries will ride a wave of pent-up demand.
I see a modest and careful rebound. Few of us are taking high risk economic trades.
Who sold heir ten year Treasury stash overnight? I think the petrodollar was happy at 1.6% but someone in OPEC likely rebelling. I lost track except to note that 1.7% is a big jump by any standard. Someone, likely pension funds, is getting a shock to their beliefs.
Consider a measuring rod with five marks. How many unique paths through the stick?
5^5, after which I duplicate paths. Note, the paths are now ordered.
*I want to masp these paths to my Lie graph, a circle on a flat table. i need to count each step ina path 3/2 times.
The total angles around my graph are (3/2) " [5^5].
Which will come to two pi. Take the log 3/2 of the total anglesd and get = (1/5) log(15)). I am countng poaths but using symmetyry. Each path is a shift of one pathwith five starting point. There are five starting points but I can count them wiht log(5) od a 3.2 digit counter bits. I don;t need all five starting points having their own digit, I need only count them to a reound off error. And I have 2pi/5 points of symmetry.
So I am restricring the class of conformal surfaces to classes that small fractional geodesics. And they must conformally twist and flatten onto the ie graph without collisions of the dots when looking strght down during the process.
If I have M relarive primes, then they most all count uniquely by M/(M-1) sample about the Lie graph if they meet the conditions.
I get that the sum or their squares equals M times their product.
The square insures they fit into circular Lie graph at different radial point. They must count in sequence, with no overlap. And tthey have M points of symmetry about the graph. The conditionstell us that in proper order the points along any Lies radial are slected to optimally estimate Pi from the previous estimation. Or alternatively, they are estimated euler's numnber.
The Biden administration is defending controversial provisions in Democrats’ coronavirus relief package that put new restrictions on states’ ability to cut taxes, as Ohio's attorney general asked a federal court to rule it unconstitutional.
I need to see the details of the suit. In California the union agreement was a mandate, positive, on the right of local legislatures to tax. But it was the state legislature tat installed the restriction.
I hope it was a misprint. I have the ten year at 1.68. This is "whoa nellie". Maybe day after, a quick negotiations, and off we go?
A wash, rinse, repeat conspiracy
Oil buyer, very large betting collection, sells the ten and holds cash just after closing. Yield up, dollar up, oil down. Oil buyer group then filled up with oil. That is a now broken petrodollar standard. It can't stop an arbitrage. Ten ear at 1.6 seemed just right, kept a stable $65 oil price and bouncy dollar.
If the primary dealers cannot keep pace with petrodollar then that impacts Treasury, Treasury forced extremely short, we get rate cycle.
I am the alt-right of MMT, a big believer. Leave it at, double spend and tax; with the debt markets free.
Stephanie is right, their is a sovereign claim on money. The unrecoverabe cost of sovereign overhead. It is real, not that big of a deal, enforceable by the Supremes, fit with Constitution, it is the winning form of MMT and should be implemented tomorrow. Stephanie can put up her numbers, based on her principle as stated in wiki, and there are no yield controls stated. No other controls but the two stated.
I make no ex ante restriction on Congress ability to borrow, or save.
The endogenous Treasury bank, Janet with 240 billion in cash flow, and revenue sharing. Butthey d not have to do inflationary pricing, they can pay off debt. Let the revenue sharing have 100 billion. They can negotiate state, district and personal sharing. But the more efficient the Swamp runs, the less deficit, the incentives are right, and fiscal capacity visible from the endogenous bank. It is liquid. Itcan be moved down the line quickly, pricing the government flow.
The fed, n exit, returns the debt equivalent to the contracted inflation tax, 1,.5%. And the fiats are free with a smaller monopoly fee, and n tax collection duties. Congress is stil free to borrow on the debt markets,as they wish. Let the department themselves issue debt. There is no reason not to open up the government debt markets. Put that under automation, and dispense with the primary delers.
What would be the central bank target?
Market share, large group of traders who want Fedwire. That is the fiat guaranteed market, and they are trusted proof of stack market makers. This is a big win for Federal reform, and release a lot of liquidity for repeat performance to spreading cash. The savings from minimizing the fiscal recession cycle is huge. Revenue sharing works well here. Transaction costs up an down the government channel reduced . Fiats can be the neutral banker, and run the endogenous bank. and offer the insured term loans for long time contracts. Dumping the primary deals, or letting them work through the endogenous bank saves oodles of costs, huge margins gone. but the primary dealers have a much more expansive retail and whole sale business ass the tax collecting costs are gone..
The only regulations the fiats need are the safety restriction on the use of Fedwire. That wuold be mostly criminal, taxable contracts are optional. Safety issues for banks handled by contract specifications, and all that handled by provable code under fiat management.
Let the finttech kids put government n a stable cash flow basis, worth trillions over the next 15 years.
Price is second and the currency banker need to stay a head of liquidity swapping. It is automated at the shortest end, overnight funds. Pricing is a function, it is actually a exchange p the logistics tree. Whch is why our Fed just follows the one year, almost always. Consumer ricing is now two steps ahead of the Fed. The Fed is trilemming by handling the government account specially. The Fed has no clue about inflation except ex post. It matters not, the true inflation index is dollars per barrel.
So we have this Fed looking for additional markets to tax. Why that is deflation. Government will have a hard time making any consumer inflation. If rates too low and Fed taxes high then dollar drops and there is sudden rush to buy oil from Texas. There is no expansion in that unless we all move to Texas.
More oil exports, money to Texas, increasing Fed tax. Janet and Jay cannot be that dumb. Let Janet have a 1.5% double spending authority and the Fed cut out taxes down to a fair monopoly license for fedwire. Like do this tomorrow, quit being brainless.
Just a few year ago, Janet and jay ran a rate cycle, it was not all that bad. Forthis cycle, let Janet double spend and Jay an watch oil prices. Keep her budget to 1.5%.
The decision to remove the popular UC Browser is the latest hit to the empire of Jack Ma, China’s most famous entrepreneur, after regulators scuppered the record $37bn initial public offering of Ant Group, Alibaba’s financial technology affiliate. Ma has barely been seen in public since the listing was pulled last November, as Xi tightens Beijing’s grip on the economy.
Tech scares the shit our of the Commie army also.
Putting his entry in, even before the bill was passed, was incoming Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. His proposal: make the United States a global leader in high-speed rail.
Jeez, Pete, you are supposed to be a bit smarter. Bullet trains went no where last time, except Fresno California for five miles. California is not spending all its political capital to buy another five miles of rail for my home town.
California needs infrastructure money for one reason, pension plans.
White House Blames Trump Amid 'Worst Border Crisis In Modern American History'
Then as soon as Kamala was chosen VP, that was the signal to jam the borders again. Well known, even Obama noticed.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said Monday night he would appoint a Black woman to the United States Senate if Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) resigns before her term expires in 2024.
A Biden Tax Proposal: NotableHighlights While Details Await
Cuomo wanted the limits on state and local tax deductions to expand the New York tax based after Trump reduced those deductions. Add that to the mix, a strategy to favor blue states in retaining their tax base.
This is a long and difficult tax battle and will require an election to get this done.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is working with other countries on an agreement to update corporate tax rules to establish a global minimum tax as the Biden administration considers raising taxes on businesses in order to finance spending priorities.
A non binding minimum tax on business. I think this is part of escaping from the Californians, she wants out of town ASAP. The essential problem is what the hell are we going to do with Kamala, Jill and the California crowd running around the Swamp. We have this nightmare for almost two years in tacking the tax issue, no one really wants any part of that.
LAS VEGAS (AP) — From a vaccination site in the desert West to a grade school on the Eastern seaboard, President Joe Biden’s top messengers -- his vice president and wife among them -- led a cross-country effort Monday to highlight the benefits of his huge COVID relief plan.
Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and their spouses are embarked on an ambitious tour this week to promote the $1.9 trillion plan as a way to battle the pandemic and boost the economy.
Mostly this is an exercise in getting them out of town.
All the questions will be about the Biden tax increase. And those questions will just cause turmoil. Biden needed to send them abroad, out of sight, out of mind.
The U.S. president’s proposal will primarily affect top earners, while states are also considering increasing taxes.California needs that tax bracket to keep up, as does New York. Nothing will be decided until election time which will come faster than they think. Once the federal tax becomes a serious discussion, California and New York delegations will need to consider their respective state claims on that tax base.
From CBPP.
fair chart and shows that revenue sharing will always slightly lean toward smaller states and slightly lean against the bigger. There is a centralizing component in the Constitution which rewards states for moving toward the demographic center.
No political party can be blamed for this tendency. This better to acknowledge it, and then make it more liquid. Not to speed it up, but to make it smoother.
U.S. oil firms focused exclusively on the shale patch are expected to only marginally increase their combined production this year compared to 2020, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data of listed companies—a sign that OPEC+ could be right, at least for now, that $70 oil would not unleash a massive production increase from the United States.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence data, the largest listed U.S. shale firms who have no production outside America are set to raise their production from 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 7.2 million bpd in 2021—a modest increase compared to the previous two boom-and-bust cycles.
Most public U.S. shale firms continue to vow strict capital discipline, although oil prices have rallied this year and WTI Crude is currently trading at over $65 per barrel. Major listed companies promise that any excess cash flow will go to additional payouts to shareholders, who have seen years of meager returns while the shale patch was chasing drilling and production records.
But OPEC relies on the petrodollar standard and get their price from the petrodollar banks. The petro banks are the ones funding the shale system.
$70 makes shale a marginal price setter, This is equilibrium for the petrodollar. 1.6% yield also satisfies the FX insurers in Japan. The dollar seems stable enough.
Here's more from Bloomberg.
Unlike the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 stimulus act, the next initiative, which is expected to be even bigger, won’t rely just on government debt as a funding source. While it’s been increasingly clear that tax hikes will be a component - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said at least part of the next bill will have to be paid for, and pointed to higher rates - key advisers are now making preparations for a package of measures.
With each tax break and credit having its own lobbying constituency to back it, tinkering with rates is fraught with political risk. That helps explain why Bill Clinton’s signature 1993 overhaul stands out from the modest modifications done since.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that the Biden administration hasn’t decided whether to pursue a wealth tax, but will likely issue proposals to address the swelling federal budget deficit.
From Mish. But did she actually say swelling deficit? This sounds like a preparation for rate cycle time. But she was likely more non-committal then Mish implies. One of the biggest tax battle with Texas stopping oil taxes, California losing all its tax initiatives ave one small one, New York losing the home owner interest deduction limit, and Chicago losing its tax initiative.
Since the Californians cheated on the revenue sharing, the next state and local bailout will be a tough negotiation. A prolonged tax battle will generate a rte cycle sooner than Janet is ready for.
BEIRUT, Aug 26 (Reuters) - Lebanon’s inflation rate soared to 112.4% year-on-year in July amid an economic meltdown, latest official data showed, even before this month’s devastating Beirut port explosion compounded a deep financial crisis.
Lebanon became the first country in the region to suffer from hyperinflation in July, according to Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at the Johns Hopkins University.
Religious nuts trying to make monrey with genocidal religious wars. You can blame islam.
How would you encapsulate Martin’s thesis?
1. Starting around 2000, the amount of information on the Internet doubles in a year.
From one of the blogs.
The information race goes back to ancient times. I have gone through the list many times. The Phoenician alphabet, invention of paper, guttenburg, rotary printing press, telegraph, switched telephone networks.
Telegraph speeds doubled in a year, and never stopped. The internet today is an advanced telegraph network.
The rate cycle happens when the two year minus the one year rates exceed 15 basis points. That is the point where it is profitable to get a bond trader out of bed. When we reach that point, treasury, meaning Yellen will be politically forced to borrow at the short rate, and she will not be able to stop until the curve inverts and we have a, hopefully, mild downturn. Hopefully meaning a rate cycle that does not result in a technical recession.
That difference is now about nine basis points. The two year will jump five basis points and the one year drops one bass. So the appropriate bond trader should be prepared to go on duty.
Nuru was charged with one count of alleged public corruption and is innocent until proven guilty. “The complaint describes a web of corruption involving bribery, kickbacks, and side deals by one of San Francisco’s highest-ranking city employees,” said U.S. Attorney David L. Anderson. “The public is entitled to honest work from public officials, free from manipulation for the official’s own personal benefit and profit.”
It cost a premium to poop on Nancy's lawn.
Hayman Capital Management, L.P. is an SEC-registered asset management firm based in Dallas, Texas. Founded by J. Kyle Bass in December 2005,Hayman Capital manages assets of privately offered pooled investment vehicles.
Why would anyone give a fig newton for Kyle Bass's opinion on the matter?
Folks, our Fed does not control the dollar, the foreign petrodollar banks control the dollar. The Fed has been relegated to tax collection, and not even relegated by us, they are under the command of our foreign petro dollar banks.
And these nutty ergodic econs in the Swamp think they are 'expecting us to expect'? There is no expectation field across the US economy, there isd Texas responding to foreign oil demand as best they can, and ot much else is holding up the economy. We are swindled, mostly swindled by the Californians.
The implicit inflation is influenced by imports. Our importers want low oil prices from Texas and high export prices to the USA.
But they have a dilemma. Domestic oil consumption look better to us relative to import prices. Further, the petrodollar managers have largely left the US bond market and lost a lot of leverage.
Right now the best bet for the petrodollar users is leave well enough alone. But I doubt this monetary standard will hold up for long. I have become stumped about the next move. Maybe the best move is to let the Fed continue to raise the domestic VAT tax to keep domestic oil usage down while import prices keep rising. But even that has a short life as Texas suffers the cost of import price hikes.
Americans extracted more cash from their homes through cash-out refinancings in 2020 than in any year since the financial crisis.
U.S. homeowners cashed out $152.7 billion in home equity last year, a 42% increase from 2019 and the most since 2007, according to mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac . It was a blockbuster year for mortgage originations in general as well: Lenders churned out more mortgages than ever in 2020, fueled by about $2.8 trillion in refis, according to mortgage-data firm Black Knight Inc.
The oil markets are adjusting the dollar for the yield curve control implemented to accommodate the stimulus. It takes a week or so of the earth turning to get it right. So our petrodollar managers are a bit behind the curve. The Fed is trying to disguise the YCC for a long as possible, but their front running is being discovered. We should see the petrodollar standard return to toward normal sometime Monday or Tuesday.
What are the petrodollar bankers waiting for? They need to now how willing the average oter is on payin he extra 50 billion a year the YCC costs us.
And they need to see if infrastructure week lasts linger than a week.
Biden’s $4 Trillion Industrial Policy Faces Bigger Hurdles Than Politics
The University of California-Berkeley is on its way to becoming a Hispanic-Serving Institution, which means that at least 25 percent of undergraduate students identify as "Chicanx/Latinx."
Oil at $65 makes us a marginal oil exporter.
That is the safe asset, Asian exporters getting a reliable energy source from the dollar. It is all about stable oil flow for goods exporters. Dollar too strong reduces our oil exports, dollar too weak raises oil costs for exporters.
BofA Answers Who Bought Last Week's Tech Rout
It was no secret that tech substitutes for retail fiat banks which have been destroyed. I mean, it was headline news for a year.
Democrats to States: No New Tax Cuts
States will ignore this and the Supremes will back them up. This is the trick the Cal unions imposed, during the teachers strike. Elected official were required to support increased tax hikes. The result was clear, none of the California tax initiatives passed.
The same will apply to states, many will cut taxes. Californians are attempting an unconstitutional coup.
We are having the ten years adjusted by Asians. Many of them leaving the US market and entering the Chinese market, is my guess. I suspect they are unnerved a bit by the sudden switch to YCC by the fed.
They are up 4%, as predicted they would be after the Fed began YCC.
So the seigniorage tax is going up. But the greens in this chart are foreign bondholders, now mostly cashed out. The tax increase now falls on domestic bond holders.