U.S. oil firms focused exclusively on the shale patch are expected to only marginally increase their combined production this year compared to 2020, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data of listed companies—a sign that OPEC+ could be right, at least for now, that $70 oil would not unleash a massive production increase from the United States.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence data, the largest listed U.S. shale firms who have no production outside America are set to raise their production from 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 7.2 million bpd in 2021—a modest increase compared to the previous two boom-and-bust cycles.
Most public U.S. shale firms continue to vow strict capital discipline, although oil prices have rallied this year and WTI Crude is currently trading at over $65 per barrel. Major listed companies promise that any excess cash flow will go to additional payouts to shareholders, who have seen years of meager returns while the shale patch was chasing drilling and production records.
But OPEC relies on the petrodollar standard and get their price from the petrodollar banks. The petro banks are the ones funding the shale system.
$70 makes shale a marginal price setter, This is equilibrium for the petrodollar. 1.6% yield also satisfies the FX insurers in Japan. The dollar seems stable enough.
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