Retirement stampede

Affluent Americans Rush to Retire in New ‘Life-Is-Short’ Mindset

The unprecedented surge in shares and home values during an economic crisis is easing the retirement path for those who have savings and investments.

A repeated theme of mine and this will cause headaches for pension funds. 

Godotists in the Swamp causing panic

"Election Panic" Coming In 2022, Martin Armstrong Warns "It's Going To Turn Violent"

According to a recent poll, 51% of Americans think Joe Biden cheated to get into the White House. The breakdown is 74% Republicans and an astounding 30% Democrats think cheating played at least a part of the 2020 Election outcome. In Arizona, the 2020 Election ballots are finally being audited as court battles to stop it continue. Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong is predicting an election “panic in 2022.”

The delusion that there is some kind of steering wheel at the top of the government chain.  California delusionals spread the fiction. Trumpsters spread the delusions. A lot of econs in cahoots.

Battle over tax base

 Biden’s tax plan could hit California hard

A cosmic convergence of events in Washington and Sacramento last week demonstrated how strongly federal and state tax systems are interconnected.

President Joe Biden, it was revealed, will ask Congress this week to nearly double taxes on capital gains of the highest-income taxpayers, on top of an increase in taxes on their ordinary incomes he had proposed earlier to pay for infrastructure improvements.

California’s budget is extraordinarily dependent on those same taxpayers, with the top 1% — about 150,000 tax filers in a state of nearly 40 million — accounting for nearly 50% of the state’s general fund revenues. Much of those revenues from the state’s wealthiest residents come from their capital gains, which have increased sharply in recent years.

Econs need to pay attention. We are not one tax collector, we are competing tax collectors sharing the same tax base. 

California, live or die by stock market

California Is Awash in Cash, Thanks to a Booming Market

Stocks, when high the local governments save pension cash and state government collects gains taxes. 

If stocks tank then California takes down the whole economy.

My Fed solution for bitcoin

 Just the libertarian math past of me has this idea.

Bitcoin-Fedwire Gateway Market

My latest passion is reselling Fedwire services. 

The Fed can make money by provind a neutral service via direct bitcoin-dollar exchanges. Put up an automated market, Btc to Fedwire, and back. The Fed takes ten percent. They have a near CB monopoly in the USA.

Wyoming and Vermont being asked to bear all the new debt for California bailouts

Joe Biden’s multitrillion-dollar “infrastructure” bill is looking increasingly like a non-starter in the Senate this week. And as usual, the fly in the ointment is West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. While Chuck Schumer and his allies continue their plans to try to jam the bill through on a party-line vote via the reconciliation process, King Joseph has been huddling with some of the more moderate Republicans and talking about a considerably more modest bill that is actually confined to real infrastructure projects, coming in with a price tag somewhere between $600 billion and one trillion dollars.

These two states, and Alaska do not get fancy choo choo machines. They are not looking for labor union perks, nor pension bailouts. They would prefer cash.  Come up with ffty billion in cash to the small state capitals and the deal is done.

Our Mao, son of Marx

 New Chinese Decree Forces Religious Leaders To Actively Support Communist Party

Hallowed be thy revolution

Xi's kingdom come, the socialist won

In China but not quite  Taiwan.

The ten year yield, down to 1.55%

I have three theories, 

1) Saudis done it with increase oil production which is breaking the petrodollar system

2) Jay is into yield curve control and hiding the process.

3)  FX insurance is cheaper because the other fiat currencies are weak.

A bit of time will sort it out, not me. I lack the info to figure this out  and do not want a big research project.

Chart, total government interest rate:

It has been stepping down in slow steps coherent with each new regime in the Swamp.  But one has to add a half point, the siegniorage taxes collected by the Fed.

This is information about to be learned/ Was Truman correct when he said the natural government rate is 2%?

Her entire career was based on systematic racism, and sexism

Lindsey Graham Says There’s ‘No’ Systemic Racism In U.S., Citing Kamala Harris As VP

She is where she is because she affirmatively acted on color-gender. Racism is the law in California.

Tax base wars

The Heroic Congressional Fight to Save the Rich

A handful of Democrats want to hold up a $2 trillion infrastructure bill to save a choice tax deduction for the wealthy, not that you'll hear it described that way

Both California and New York wants to sve the richj so they can tax them, not the Swamp. 

Putting the Senators in action

Manchin floats breaking up Biden's infrastructure proposal

The current massive stimulus has a lot of California delusions built in. Manchin wants then filtered out to pass the Senate.

The California delusionals thought the two party system rules, a big error and a big error among the Godotist econs.

That would be 250 years of Godotists getting anxiety

Tensions rise as Democrats face Senate bottleneck on agenda

The government system is unfathomable to the newly elected, such as California delusionals.  There is something wrong, our humans brains are not equipped for the Swamp.

I don't see the racial issue and neither does she

Abrams replied: "I object to the provisions that remove access to the right to vote, that shorten the run-off period from nine weeks to four weeks, that restrict the time that a voter can request to return an absentee ballot--"

Stacey Abrams in debate

This was never about race and, it seems t me, these issues affect both parties.  Hard to separate the virtue signaling from the common sense. If I had to vote on this issue I would flip a coin.

Turn the USA into a massive oil exporter

Yellen touts 'whole-of-economy' plan to fight climate change

Interest rats will pop once begin using massive oil  for her 'whole-of-economy' trick. She is stuck with Biden's increasing slowness of brain and the California delusionals.  This all bodes ill when devaluation event arrives, none of them prepared.

Deposits to loans

From Mish, and seen elsewhere.

The Fed is the banker for the Swamp.  The Fed makes this chart by over loading on Swamp debt and earning  seigniorage for the Swamp. Hence commercial banks are crowded out by the necessity of covering the seigniorage fees.

Unnamed econ said ths

I have a paper (OLG model) w/ Bullard that has stochastic growth and dynamic inefficiency-cured by optimal debt management. In eqm, r(x) = g(x) under optimal policy in every state x. So risk premium seems not 2B issue here?

The mistake is Over Lapping Generations model. we do not do i well an it is a bad assumption.  Econs should know better than to assume it true.  In this case, yes indeed, the kids plan on a evaluation of the USD.

But, econs do make wrong assumptions. and many of them end up yapping at us for a lifetime because they made a bad assumption in some paper. I don't read many of their old papers, they all seem to make some untrue assumption from the start.

Rich democrats don't like federal taxes

 

Dark blue are rich dems.

The article from ZH is about tax base, which large states get which tax base.

The wealthy want state taxes, easier to manage. Large state dem politicians want state tax. But all that light blue? Those are poorer people, and they love federal taxes. The dems are reaching a Constitutional conundrum.

My hometown

 

And the homeless camp by the rail road tracks. Gets noisy at times.

Automating FX transfer with Fedwire contracts

 The collective central banks offer bank to bank currency swaps of differing currencies. This service is quantized into Currency Swaps, CS. 

CS are bought and sold in local currencies.  CS not used earns an interest swap when on deposit. Interest swap in in partial CS, we are carrying round off error, there is a CS S/L function. The automated brokers sees to it that Swaps on loan vs Swaps on deposit stay within bounds of round off error.

Very simple and makes bank to bank account adjustments easy. Currency values are relative to local demand for CS. This is like a finite block chain, an adaptive block chain. The broker just wants to keep the ledger reasonably stable, enough for local markets to settle on price. The structured queue model implied for CS demand should tend toward actual trade structured channels, be very coherent.

For banks, this is great, they can all swap various currencies, backed by Fed wire, meaning all proof of stake CBs have signed off on their accounts.

But weak economies will hold CS as local money! The broker does not really care, that is like a productivity shock, they happen, that risk is shared.  This is a lot light bitcoin, as if bitcoin erased all the ledgers that have been cleared. CBs, collectively, are proof of stake, it is cleared when there is a sign off.

Under my bank reform, this is already a done deal, banks set up the software transfer and any bank in any CB zone can use it if they have access to their local CB Fedwire. This is all the fiats, they can all allow customers to be multi currency, and the banks can hold these CS contracts. Any customer alters their set of currencies by using a CS, and suffering an interest swap cost. Every currency swap goes through the local market price. CS contracts on deposit make partial CS interest.

Pricing. The value of a CS in local currency measures the local demand to move their currency out. If another party own a CS they sell it over the foreign currency market of choice. The CS is cleared from th Fedwire books. Their is always a market for CS in every local currency else the CS itself becomes local money.  Very simple, very intuitive, stable, automated profitless. Stable contract because each participant is buffered by a  fair market on contract exit.

Maxine joins the rebellion

 

Collapse of scale

 

Market depth has contracted due to negative productivity shock.  The variance in banking risk increases.

Mass shootings are an NRA plot!

Suspect legally purchased guns used in FedEx Indianapolis shooting, police say

They love mass shootings as it gives them excuses to carry guns themselves.

Oil sales will be funding all the Green jobs

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland on Friday revoked a series of Trump administration orders that promoted fossil fuel development on public lands and waters, and issued a separate directive that prioritizes climate change in agency decisions.

The moves are part of a government-wide effort by the Biden administration to address climate change ahead of a virtual global summit on climate change that President Joe Biden is hosting next week.

Our new gal is in open loop delusions. Once she shuts down oil a lot of Grteenies will lose their jobs. 

Bleached blond going to save whitey.

 

She and the Gaetz dude who wanted to have sex with Trump. The both of them plan a new philosophy for America.

NRA gun nut with the castration anxieties

 

The usual worthless American with a gun.

Stupid California regulators

 Taking the hint, California’s Department of Public Health promptly re-inked its regulations, stressing that though “limits on places of worship are not mandatory” any longer, they are still “strongly recommended.”

The whole idea is to regulate gatherings, don't mention churches at all  Why these idiots keep specifying religion in their list is beyond me. 

I admit stupid preachers give Covid to the flock and kill them on a regular basis, bot so do a bunch of other tnterprises, like gyms.

Bring back revenue sharing

After the House GOP’s defense of the earmark ban collapsed in a lopsided vote to restore the practice — which became a dirty word after years of earmark-driven corruption scandals in the early 2000s — the Senate GOP is agonizing over whether to follow suit. It’s hard to find many GOP defenders of the earmark, but that doesn’t mean Republican senators want to unilaterally disarm when their House counterparts and Democrats can bring home the bacon to their constituents.

States ad locals are FUBAR no matter how we phrase it.  Just bite the bullet and send cash to state capitals on a revenue sharing agreement. 

We have been through all the other possible fixes, and I am not one who wants to review old material. Just move on, give the states cash and be done with it.

Are the Repubs recovering from the nightmare?

Republicans who backed Trump impeachment see fundraising boost

Sounds like a broken axle in the bond market

 The way the yield is gyrating and the Fed pumping up, vertical, on the ten year end. That surge of government debt, whirling, swilling in joy about the light hearted heavens and broke and axle.

The chihuahua may throw her hat in the ring

Caitlyn Jenner, a porn star and more: The Gavin Newsom recall is getting crowded

Here she is being interview by the Fresno Bee. She has wide support in this neighborhood.

I blame the NSA

US expels Russian diplomats, imposes sanctions for hack

The NSA keeps their own doors open and their interior network is out of control allowing things like Solar Winds breech.  I have made the point about secure personal ID many times, but the NSA still digs in their heels and the legislatures are too stupid to understand the connection. Personal Secure ID allows data access to be monitored with provable security.

Chip shortage becoming a problem

“Every aspect of human existence is going online, and every aspect of that is running on semiconductors,” said Pat Gelsinger, the new chief executive of the chip maker Intel, who attended the meeting with the president on Monday. “People are begging us for more.”

Giving away my age

 It has been twenty years since I watched one of the talking head newsmen on TV.  I am a little confused about why we suddenly discovered they were delusional liars.

Last thing the ME needs is this nightmare

Breaking Baghdad: How Iraq’s crystal meth epidemic is ravaging the nation

If you thought the islamic fanatics on both Shia and Sunni side were nuts then you ain't seen nothing yet.

Looks like we have a full scale Shay's Rebellion

 Good old American are writing a chapter in the history books.  We can only hope the econs get bigger clues sooner. Eventually the BLM and Proud Boys are going to discover what they are really angry at and then the Fed will be in deep shit.

International FX exchange made easy, and automated

 Btc, an infinite block chain, does automatic FX exchange priced according to congestion. We just need to make a finite block chain.

We can use the fundamental property of Sam Walton theory of the checkout counters, and make this work just like the automated, profitless S/L trading pit. We have buyers and sellers who trade spots on the finite block chain and an automated pit boss which is neutral.  The interest swaps, in this case are partial spots held outside the block chain.

Senders of currency are borrowers of ledger spots, receivers are depositors of ledger spots. The pit boss only maintains its own holdings of partial ledger spots, keeping them bound in total. This works just fine and I will provide details over a few more addendums to this post.

This is just like the automated S/L because instantaneous swaps of partial ledger spots are just like instantaneous interest swaps needed to keep deposits and loans in approximate balance.

The Supreme Court is hopelessly destroyed

House Republican proposes constitutional amendment to prevent Supreme Court expansion

Godotists in the Swamp have so jammed up the federal judiciary that is it beyond reparable. We do not know how badly fucked we are from delusional legislatures and presidents.

The ten year is now just wildly gyrating

 Down to 1.61 almost a 7 basis drop over night.  Something is breaking. Likely the petrodollar.

I found out what is breaking. A combination of sanctions and yield curve control.

The last part of this chart is the Fed raising taxes on ten year government collateral.  This will kill off retail banking and is a nightmare come true.

The pitchforks are coming to the Eccles building.

Something else is wrong:

1.5300-0.1080 (-6.59%)

As of 2:59PM EDT. Market open.

• Summary

According to Yahoo but:

1.58 according to Bloomberg. Normally these track. Looking closer, the Yahoo is intra day, now closed. The ten year has recovered somewhat as Bloomberg is the most recent.

The company’s BlueField-3 DPUs transform traditional infrastructure into “zero-trust” environments, where every data center user is authenticated and verified. This secures enterprises from cloud to core to edge while increasing efficiency and performance.

Zero trust means we can agree to a contract and our smart cards will obey, until we disagree and take a safe exit.   Tim Cook, it is time for your Smart Card.

Someone is making me Republican

Wood, a combat veteran and small business owner, has embraced his political identity as a Trump antagonist. He has publicly needled the former president on Twitter, recently declaring that “I’d rather fight for my country and the Constitution on a shoestring budget than kiss that man’s ring at Mar-a-Lago.” The 34-year-old has also collected some high-profile yet polarizing allies in Washington, including GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) and Liz Cheney (Wyo.). Both voted to impeach Trump and have faced calls to be excommunicated from their own party

Let's make this guy president. 

A mere blip and under target YoY

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 2.62%, up from 1.68% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.65%, up from 1.28% the previous month and below the Fed's 2% PCE target.

Hardly a talking point.  The ten year yield dropped two basis on the news.  This i still about deflation pressure.

No they paused for a moment then said nah

Stock futures drop after US officials call for pause of J&J vaccine rollout

And about 30 seconds after Yahoo fooled itself, the futures went right back.  This is typical Yahoo

Now the headline changes! I wonder if they read my blog.

 Stocks mixed after US officials call for pause of J&J vaccine rollout

The entire rebellion caused by ignorant central bankers

 As trial unfolds in death of George Floyd, faith leaders join police in urging calm in Los Angeles

Central banker have never learned the pure model of liquidity swaps. They started and ended with central banking which left them completely ignorant about S/L accounts that people need to avoid becoming stranded in the economy. Selgin nailed the problem long ago, but he is restricted on speaking out.

It is ignorance from UC Berkeley to MIT, tow institutions that need be shut down. Paul Sameulson started the fraud with his claim of ergodicity, and it has continued ever since. Now we have delusional Californians in charge making the problem much worse.

Poor people and lower middle class of any color or gender have a distinct American claim to looting until central bankers learn some simple math. Politicians add to the issue by claiming proportional voting which we do not have. Nut case3s from Sanders to Trump to Cotton to D=DeSantis to Newsom, totally ignorant of how to deal with a federal system.

Horse manure

 I dunno why the Fed sends out their bozos to lie.

In his first speech as a member of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, Christopher Waller defended Fed independence and reassured his audience that "deficit financing and debt servicing issues play no role in our policy decisions and never will."  His goal was to dispel the "narrative"…

The Fed collected almost a trillion in seigniorage fees after the 2008 oil shock, and now they plan on doubling that tax for this round of government financing.  They send these delusional nuts out to change the narrative?  How stupid is that.  All they do is encourage the new regime to raise debt all they want.

The ten is year back up to 1.69

The senators have been shaken and the Dems want to fire the CBO director to get better reports after he trashed the minimum wage proposal. Oil back above 60.The dollar remains stable, as of yesterday, today will be another story.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the Fed is stuck, it will have no choice but to increase their seigniorage collection for the remainder of the Biden regime.

And the rebellion among the unbanked poor is growing.

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Labor productivity—defined as output per labor hour—has grown at a below-average rate since 2005, representing a dramatic reversal of the above-average growth of the late 1990s and early 2000s. The productivity slowdown during these years has left many economic observers wondering why this situation has occurred and what factors may have contributed. To clarify potential sources of the productivity slowdown, this article presents an analysis of labor productivity and its component series—multifactor productivity, contribution of capital intensity, and contribution of labor composition—at both the economy-wide and industry levels, complemented with a survey of the contemporary productivity literature.

The BLS will lie about the cause, but the cause is quite simple, Swamp multipliers are below on and have gotten worse. This is mostly about California as we see from this chart:

California has been increasingly behind in recovering from our fiscal cycles. It is still getting worse and this is all about the imbalanced government structure implicit in the Constitution.

Why not acknowledge the problem and try a little revenue sharing? Godotism, the Delongs, the Krugmans, and a whole host of badly educated Phd economists who cannot compute value chain math. Our lower multipliers are all about an increasing Godot tax, this all started with the dumb fuck called Paul Samuelson. He was the 'This time is different' fraudster hired by the Fed to create a delusion of ergodicity, which we do not have. The same class of ignorant boneheads at MIT are at it again.

Some one wrote a book about the generational fraud called 'This time is different'. The ergodic fantasy, and it is the increasing cause of low productivity and will result in the regularly scheduled generations default and regime change. I have no idea how such stupidity got into MIT, but they have become a useless institute of bricklaying.

 

Matt Young: I won't run for president if my dog does

Nikki Haley: I won't run for president in 2024 if Trump does

Who would the nation mists the most? Me or Nikki?

Here is the chihuahua at a news conference.

Horsemanure

China and Russia will keep Iran from building a bomb

You mean North Korea, Pakistan, India? China and Russia have surrounded themselves with nuclear powers.

Lowering the debt cost of invenory thus lowering consumer prices

 Big U.S. Banks Cut Loans to Record Low, Again, as Deposits Jump

We are a long way from inflation.

No sex with Trump for Gaetz

Gaetz was denied meeting with Trump: CNN

Gaetz has no self respect.

The teachers want the cash

California’s embattled high-speed rail could get a lift from Biden plan, Buttigieg says

Could Biden’s big infrastructure bill help California’s bullet-train?

Mayor Pete has not been paying attention to the pension issues in California, completely slipped by him.  Biden seems to be surrounded by the delusionals.

Kamala is Biden's disaster

VP Harris’ response to migrant crisis borders on the absurd: Devine

Her only qualification for any political office has been her color-gender combination.  She has not done one thing to aid the Biden administration and Democrats are starting to get pissed. I told you Biden would send her off, an hope she doesn't come back. But she keeps showing up in places, and she is an embarrassment and a disaster.

Hoarding oil

There's a lot of unused oil stored up around the world - and Saldanha Bay is part of the picture

And a lot of it.  Oil vaults makes the life of a petro banker difficult. I suspect oil prices will be around 60 for some time to come.  Thus little inflation for Jay.

The Swamp gets the bracket above 400k and California gets the bracket under that number.

White House sends mixed message on higher taxes

It really seems to be  debate between the large states and the Swamp.  Texas is neutral as long as oil taxes are not raised.  Nor does Florida care, it still gets escapees from New York in any case.

Kragan gets this right

"California limits religious gatherings in homes to three households. If the state also limits all secular gatherings in homes to three households, it has complied with the First Amendment," she wrote.

Another Supremes ruling on restriction of activities.  

In this case California did as it intended, limit activities at home.  It had nothing to do with religion but likely broke other rules.  The Supremes are unable to stick to Kragan's simple rule and by now the states have learned to keep religion out of the picture all together. 

The Suremes are, in general, a mess. They are all over the map on these issues, and Kragan may get this right, but she will impose her priors elsewhere. The practice in now settled in the federal judiciary with no path to return.

Congested Swamp

 Joe has a budget, a tax plan and a stimulus all on the docket at the same time. Good luck on cramming all that through.

This:

As President Biden races ahead with a mammoth plan to bolster the nation's infrastructure, Democrats are gambling they'll get a political boost from an accompanying proposal: the tax hikes designed to defray the massive costs.

Biden on Wednesday outlined a slate of tax reforms aimed at raising $2.5 trillion — much of it from large corporations — to underwrite the new infrastructure spending. The proposal was quickly roasted by Republicans, who have long portrayed Democrats as the party of higher taxes and are now warning that Biden's plan would hurt small businesses and kill American jobs.

He will gum up the works, throw sand in the gears and jam things up.  He really has no mandate, and absent Trump throwing the Georgia election would not even have a Senate. His hand much weaker than he thinks. And I tire of metaphors.

Texas Space Cadets invade California

U.S. Space Force division to be headquartered near Los Angeles airport

Looking to solidify funding support, no doubt.

The expectations field is a wash in tax talk

 Janet doing her job, and her push to straighten out some taxes is deflationary on ten year rates and oil prices. Dollar is flat.  That jump in interest costs was a bit of a wake up. But mostly, tax talk defers the next stimulus. 

I like the idea of adding revenue sharing here. The senators got their usual shock, but they are not chronic, and they can see the relationship between money shocks and balanced state finances. Janet can connect these two.

Revenue sharing for taxes

I see a trade, add a recurring revenue share for Senate and House to swap, cash only set aside. 80 billion a year sounds OK, for the length of the tax plan.

Cheap  money but it buys a lot of cooperation and intelligence from the government channel. Do these two ting s next, corporate taxes and revenue sharing.

And,or send me a check.

Dollar stable, oil 59, ten year 1.66

 The oil is too low to keep the frackers robust. That would be the Saudi effect.

This is a point where we could pause and thiuk about keeping these numbers. No one wants another jump in interest costs. Janet worries about that growing Fed tax effecting fiat banking. The senators a bit shaken with the 250 billion/yr hike in interest costs.. 

If I were not an anarchist, I would going with Janet Yellen here, and working a tax deal. Biden's got one more shot, ram Janet' tax proposal through Congress before the 2020 campaign, otherwise we are stuck in tax battle.

Janet needs to talk with the senators about revenue sharing, significant, up around a hundred billion per year.  That is a great trade for that tax increase. Let us finally liquify the earmark, and get efficiency out of government.

Joe is prepping one long can kick

 An eight year can, he says in the proposal. The kicker had better be prepped, starting his run in  January, 2015. I can barely see the goal post for the fog and mist.Far away, forty property tax payments away.

There is no dial called 'More Taxes' in the Swamp

Business groups and the infrastructure plan from Poliico: 

Groups like the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable have largely rejected the plan, saying the tax hikes that Biden is proposing to pay for it would crush American competitiveness.


Top executives of companies who in the past have given speeches about the need for infrastructure spending are mostly silent, opting to complain privately that Biden’s plan is too expensive, too partisan, too laden with unrelated social policy and not at all what they had in mind. Jeff Bezos, CEO of online retailing behemoth Amazon, put out a statement on Tuesdaythat seemed at first glance like an endorsement of Biden’s plan.

Mostly complain, then some debate follows.  This is a slog, been going on and continue on taxes. These plans are slanted, illiquid, and not bey compact over the states. Stat having to give up liquidity today for a longer term federal payoff? The federals just got a fair size hike in interest charges.

Trilemma

The dollar has been reasonable lately, and FX insurance for the dollar likes stable dollar. The FX rates determined by the ten year yield.  Petro banks like stabler US oil production, they peg to oil. They do not always agree. That is the source of volatility lately.

The two minus one is still 11, four basis below tipping. But the ten year now 1.66, below 1.7.  Oil around 60. Like oil buyers are stocking up. And that effects ten year treasury demand. But it is the two year stuck high. That is pricing moving up and down the supply chain.

So what is the big deal with a rate cycle?

 Maybe not much, it seems to be a been there done that, and can be the mild overheat everyone talks. But it makes the Senate pause, it means think twice on infrastructure, and have more tax battles.  The Infrastructure is not liquid, and if a new round of interest charges hit, the small states have like one ling term goodies on the line, it is sparse. Risky stuff, hard to get senate votes.

If  be send another short round of checks and think a bit more on the subject. Exercising the payment system has some positive side effects.

Utilities do not send advertisement down the utility pipe

Justice Thomas argues for making Facebook, Twitter and Google utilities

Which is a serious infringement on our freedom of speech, by the way.  But I tend to agree a bit here, I dunno, this one is not up my alley.

Oil even and yields down, dollar stable

 We had two basis points to spare before rate cycle. Saved by the jobs report. Good enough for FX insurance. What happens over night will be fun.  Folks may be stocked up on oil with the Saudi increments. 

Maybe we dodged a bullet?  Nah. When oil is the monetary standard, nations build vaults, oil storage. The oil pipeline is getting better at the contango. Soon, it is soon oik purchase time and the yields will take a jump closer to two points, buyers withdrawing funds and dollar up. Congress takes a breather to digest the mini shock. More talk of more taxes, send us the checks.

A win for the police unions

Mea Culpa: Oregon's Largest Newspaper Admits Defunding Police Was A Terrible Idea As Homicides Skyrocket

And all that virtue signaling got a bunch of folks killed.  

HT Zero Hedge.

We fully expected this. So just send us anoher round of checks!

Biden’s Infrastructure Package Is Designed to Boost Unions 

WASHINGTON—President Biden’s $2.3 trillion plan to invest in infrastructure, clean energy and caregiving over the coming decade would be a boon for construction workers, truck drivers, electricians and home health aides.

Both critics and supporters of the initiative say it will also benefit another group: labor unions.

Some business groups, employment law experts and Republican lawmakers say provisions aimed at bolstering union membership and expanding labor protections could increase costs, limit the number of projects that can be completed with the proposed funding and reduce the gains in economic growth.

The whole project is rigged to fail. Send us checks and skip the horse manure. 

We afe eating our own lunch, Joe.

Eating our lunch: Biden points to China in development push

It is mostly the Swamp crowding out the rest of government that is our problem.

She is suposed to be solving the border crisis

Kamala Harris: Oakland Coliseum vaccination site will stay open

Instead she is sneaking off to Oakland. 

She is already a pain in th butt for Joe, and she just makes it worse.

The story of my life

Peter Schiff

So, despite the fact that a lot of people returned to their jobs, there’re still a lot of people that aren’t working at all, thanks in large part to the US government, which is providing tremendous financial incentives for people not to return to work.”

Not in my lifetime has the federal government encouraged work.  It doesn;t bother me, but it definitely is a blunder.

Taking 'allies' a bit too far

Yellen Urges US Allies To Adopt Global Minimum Corporate Tax Rate

But tax wars are here to stay.

Losing both liberals and middle states

It is not just the repubs in middle states who reject the infrastructure 

Biden administration officials on Sunday reiterated the President’s hope for bipartisan support for his infrastructure proposal amid Republican senators signaling their opposition to the plan, which they argue doesn’t focus enough on traditional infrastructure.

Liberals want cash payments to the pensions funds and cash payments to individuals.  Repubs know the middle states will be left with little benefit.

Illiquidity is rampant, the central government is likely to botch this because infrastructure is not liquid, it cannot be traded off for other priorities. Cash payments work best.  The whole m,ess will evolve into another covid stimulus, which is the best we can do.

Take the California HSR. The infrastructure might get us as far as another ten miles after ferocious battles. The liberals out her been there done they and prefer the cash be deposited into pension funds.

What was the legal basis?

FBI Raids Business Renting Anonymous Safety Deposit Boxes, Forces Customers To Reveal Identity To Get Stuff Back

In a case that's already sparked one lawsuit, a Beverly Hills strip mall business which rents private, anonymous safe deposit boxes was raided by the FBI last month - at which time the agency conducted a blanket seizure of hundreds of customers' belongings.

I do not see that charge.  Banks offer safe deposit boxes, private mail boxes are legal.   The Fed claim they encouraged illegal tax evasion.

Florida voters need to return to mass shootingds

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced a COVID-19 vaccine distribution partnership with Publix grocery stores weeks after the company gave $100,000 to his PAC, CBS' "60 Minutes" reported Sunday, citing campaign finance records. DeSantis and Publix deny any wrongdoing.

Why it matters: DeSantis has been criticized for directing vaccines toward wealthy communities, with some who benefitted from the vaccine pop-ups also donating to the governor's political action committee, per Axios' Tampa Bay reporter Ben Montgomery.

Having their own children shot or putting up with sheer stupidity is a horrible choice.  But IQ is a rare commodity in Florida.

Public sector unions steal from poor people

 

Lots of talk lately about the unfair property tax rates.

The Fed also steals from poor people, it seems to be the easiest tax to get.

We know how value chains work

More to our point is the issue of going from decision-making individuals to the aggregate level. The extremely talented late Harvard economist Emmanuel Farhi, working with UCLA’s David Baqaee, showed that we need to consider the (unexplained) input-output structure of production in order to understand macroeconomic fluctuations: we cannot just derive it from individual representative agents.



Similarly, Harvard’s Pol Antràs (with co-authors) has recently been reconstructing the theory of international trade by assuming that the world is organized through global value chains instead of standard markets. This apparently minor assumption makes huge differences both in theory and in terms of trade-policy implications. We are barely starting to understand what it means in practice, because, up to now, we had not bothered to collect the requisite firm-to-firm data.

Economists may be a bit dense, but mathematicians  are not. 

These studies show that meso-structures matter for how cities and countries grow, and how technologies develop. Given the current orthodoxy, these papers have been unpublishable in economics journals, because they cannot show how these structures are linked to individuals making decisions under constraints.

We avoid waiting in line. 

Trumpsters fooled

How Trump Steered Supporters Into Unwitting Donations

Online donors were guided into weekly recurring contributions. Demands for refunds spiked. Complaints to banks and credit card companies soared. But the money helped keep Donald Trump’s struggling campaign afloat.

Something like two percent of all credit card complaints came from Trumps little fraud. 

Mayor Pete is selling us an infrastructure week

 Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said Sunday that President Joe Biden's American Jobs Plan would pay for itself while upgrading infrastructure from decades past.

"Right now, we're still coasting off of infrastructure choices that were made in the 1950s," Buttigieg said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "Now's our chance to make infrastructure choices for the future that are going to serve us well in the 2030s and on into the middle of the century."

Reality will hit his plot in a few days. 

30 Year Treasury rate

 

It is continuously down because Congress cannot operate with the higher rates as debt increases.

Rate cycle is two basis points away

 The two year Treasury earns .19%, the on year a mere .06%, When the difference is 15 basis points, the primary dealers will begin holding and trading more one year. That means the reserves will start to drain.  The Fed then has a tough choice, let the reserves drain and apply a much heftier seigniorage tax or raise the Fed IOER or begin selling its balance sheet.

That moment of decision looks to be this quarter. The dependent factor is Treasury and its ability to quickly cover increasing interest costs. If taxes come thought, Treasury gets breathing room, but taxes are not coming thought in time. Janet might have no choice but to run the curve flat again as she jumps onto the short end to reduce interest charges as best as possible.

I keep thinking the bond market is testing my theory on this. But not really, I have seen the 15 basis point effect during Obama era.

Split the vote

The Biden administration on Thursday indicated that the President is actively considering whether to enact widespread student loan forgiveness of up to $50,000. But no decision has yet been made.

At a Politico Playbook event on Thursday, White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain indicated that Biden has asked newly-appointed Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona to put together a memo outlining potential legal authorities that would allow him to enact broad student loan cancellation of up to $50,000.

Those of us who do not get fifty grand will be voting Repub.  Make it 15 grand and give it to us all.  The initial cost is one billion but to get it passed will require another 100 billion in checks to the rest of us.

Attack of the Godotists!

Democrats are seeking to turn the nation into one massive blue state

Dems attempt to defeat federalism. It will fail and cause a monster rate cycle.  Krugman will yap at Repubs.

Virtue signalling can be costly

GOP senators push to end MLB antitrust status

I will join the boycotters for a number of the listed virtue signalers. 

Geenies meet Alaska

Alaska Won’t Let Biden Stop Its Oil Boom 

New discoveries in Alaska by an Australian independent could provide hope for bigger oil finds yet to come in the country’s National Petroleum Reserve. Australian independent oil firm 88 Energy has been making strides in its Alaska project in recent weeks announcing an oil discovery in its Merlin-1 exploration well in the southeast National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. Further testing will show the full extent of the discovery.

88 Energy is predicting a potential 650 million barrels of oil at Merlin-1 based on its current information. This would mean the oil-bearing geologic formation, Nanushuk, is much larger than originally thought.

The other Texas.

Same stunt that Obama pulled

High-Speed Rail Advocates Should Pay Attention to California's Costly Disaster 

With a Democrat in the White House and a $2.2 trillion infrastructure plan on the table, excitement about high-speed rail is on the rise again. A map by graphic designer and transit advocate Alfred Twu, featuring possible routes for bullet train lines crisscrossing the U.S., has been making the rounds on Twitter. The map was the subject of a recent Vox article that was tweeted out by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

)Pete has seen this three i now, and he is still a teenager. 

I know Pete is getting flack from the teachers who would rather have the cash. I would rather have some checks, I have no plan to go choo chooing anywhere.

California and recurring revenue sharing

 The gross effect of revenue sharing is to centralize around the 9/1 ratio, proportional democracy. For California, that means four or five accounting regions with negotiating authority. California can make it work.  Easy enough to the five regional budget authorities to pay out on one or two programs shortages, now and then.

At the end if this chain is an implied liquidity swapper, just like the one Janet worked at the federal level. Give the authority ability to dump positive funds, and otherwise programs can get automated liquidity swaps.

The Walmart Market model of government, optimally congest the value added channel. Get the best precision measurement as possible. at some level we have risk equalized government agencies, and the trading pit model works fine, with cash infusion. In a government agency chain this offsets a lot of illiquidity constraints imposed by monopoly executive. We get the double whammy of government smoothing. Why? It is cool cash, due for this purpose as defined in the Power to coin. If there ever was a why, this is it; enforce the Law.

The unaccountable costs of Constitutions, econ 101

 We have an enforced monopoly in the economy. There is a minimal monopoly fee above the more liquid players, a price taking slightly unfair to all. No level of sound voting or perfect two party fantasies eliminate, it is small. But it accumulates, in the long term then short term rise in the Fed balance sheet.

All the rest we can recognize and front run, the government is, ultimately ours. But there will always be a residual loss that is no ones fault, but small. About 1% if the economy, or less. I call it the Godot cost, the cost of fools who want government mandated philosophies.

It is apolitical, sort of hard to see in the short term, except in the rate cycles. We are self sampled, w swap positions on a large scale. We can hedge that, better then earmarks.  But ignoring the residual unknown unknown need be recognized.

The ten year up to 1.72

No American buyers, but foreign oil buyers, stocking up.  They dump treasuries for oil based on Texas export prices. Foreign oil buys drove oil up a couple of bucks, but the dollar will soon apprciate at the higher rate.

I say this works. I say we support the frackers by piping that natural gas to our homes and lower our energy costs. The greenies plan to make more emissions, utilizing the natural gas that is otherwise burned is a good idea. The Green thing is to do this one quick fix now, it is co2 neutral, keeps the globe on the petrodollar, and is a much better way of tracking resltive energy costs, which is what Greenies need.

Top job gains

+280,000 Leisure and Hospitality

+136,000 Government

+110,000 Construction

+101,000 Education and Health Services 

Education jobs, public are in the government sector and otherwise private schools in the Education sector. Schools are reopening.  The big gains are in restaurants opening.

So, yes, this is about covid and vaccines. A third of us are vaccinated, and in a couple of months the another third will have the shots.

Not yet

 The End of the Oil Age

For more than a century, the oil and gas industry has played a central role in almost every geopolitical development of consequence. Now that the fossil fuels' days finally seem to be numbered, it is time to consider not just what will come next, but also what it will take to get there.

No its not timer to think abut the post oil age.  Greenies plan to bur oil in excess for the next ten years, and they have no intention of stopping.

Biden Blunder

Ossoff Breaks With Biden: Don’t Boycott Georgia

Biden bought into the California affirmative actors without thinking this through.

Stacy agrees with me also:

Stacey Abrams: Georgia companies shouldn’t face boycott ‘yet’ over election law

Biden has so far pissed of many of the states he needs to support the infrastructure week, unnecessarily, by listening to the California delusionals.

Oil back above 60, within range of the frackers

 Ten year below 1.7.

The petrodollar stand is holding. I am still not sure it can be defeated. And it sure seems to beat any attempt to drive a better standard into the Swamp. The petrobanks seem pretty smart about it, Texas has plenty of frackers. Oil is much more liquid than gold and is the foundation of our economies. Xi Ping Pong cannot run a better standard while suppression information flow.  Even Russian is failing to dislodge it an it has plenty of oil, Putini is misguided, it needs to align his monetary standard with oil, like we do..

IQ below a hundred

DOJ probe into Gaetz involves cash payments to women: report

Makes me ashamed to be an American voter.

Horse manure

US removes Gulf air defense batteries amid Houthi drone strikes - report

The withdrawals are part of an attempt by the administration to further reduce the US's presence in the Middle East, according to the report.

This is about kids with 5,000 dollar drones flying them into Patriot batteries and causing millions of dollars in damage.

Cuomo's tax cut for the wealthy, not coming back

Scoop: Biden doesn't plan to revive SALT deduction, possibly losing key moderates

This was a battle for tax base, Cuomo and Newsom on one side,  Biden on the other.  One skirmish in a long hard fought war.

I guess this time is not different

Today, it seems to be an article of faith among US policymakers and many economists that the world’s appetite for dollar debt is virtually insatiable. But a modernization of China’s exchange-rate arrangements could deal the dollar’s status a painful blow.

KENNETH ROGOFF 

The petrodollar standard may not hold with the Saudis now selling mostly to China. So what happens to all the stranded dollar  notes? I guess they all scramble to Texas to buy their last gasp of oil?  Then we get  bout of hyper inflation? 

I dunno, yet.  With or without the petrodollar we are still in conflict. The environmentalists plan to burn oil, lots of it, in the next few years, so they have a conflict in any event, mostly a self contradiction. But that contradiction is likely resolved with cash handouts, which most liberals these days would prefer.

There are just too many under currents to sort out until something breaks.  Even the MMTers have gone on a trilemma with YCC and the are out out of the picture. And the possibility that a combination of Fed taxes and Congress taxes may just inflict a bout of deflation and save the petrodollar. The next step is to see if Biden's dream is whittled down to another cash handout. To many events have to be revealed before any of this is clear.

Biden doing infrastructure

DOT halts Texas highway project in test of Biden’s promises on race

Her is pushng a road building plans while halting road building plans.  Dots are not connecting in the Biden White house.

We have some fairly stupid voters out there

Gaetz showed lawmakers nude photos of women he claimed to have slept with: report

Either Texas or Florida. The USA does not have enough stupid to pass around, and it tends to show up in those two places.

 

My check! my check! God save my chek!

Fourth stimulus check: Biden urged to add payments to infrastructure plan

The Democrat version of Trump

Cuomo Ordered Aides To Conceal Nursing Home Death Numbers While He Negotiated $4M Book Deal: NYT