Thursday, October 27, 2011

This chart is making the rounds

Decomposing GDP growth among sectors
(These numbers are relative to 2005)
Mainly exports. We do have a large export industry. Government draw down was mainly local government.

The dollar had been in free fall since 2003, if you look:


The story here is the explosion of the Internet and cell phones cause huge dislocations in product distributions.

Find me a place in history where a sudden and disruptive info technology doesn't cause forceful requantization.  The real crash came in mid 2008 when the terms of trade on oil changed for the US.  We couldn't pay that price and other efficient economies could.

Why the sudden constraints on trade?
We suddenly entered a world in which everyone knew where everything was.  So the relative choices changed so dramatically that we simply didn't have the energy to move things from where they were to where we now want them.  This is mainly the information explosion in second and third worlds, entire instructions to the capitalist economy on their phones and computers.  Information technology has accelerating globalization since late 70s when the cable satellites went up.

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