Here The map shows the flow of sovereign/bank bonds over the life of the Euro, I guess. Its the inverse of the trade deficit. So Germany which has diverse exports has many lines running to it. And Greeces debt has been distributed. Greece is not the problem.
The real shocker is the bond flow from Italy to France. The French have over subsidized exports to Italy with too much lending.
Hence France wants 'Loan Reparations' from Germany. We are getting a replay of 1920. The major fix to Euro debt is for France and Italy to come to terms, they Dunnit!
HT Baseline Scenario
What does channel theory have to say about this?
Trade markets start to bet long term on debt subsidies. So the investment network adapts, it makes the long term Kelly bet in finite measurement, small changes to actual physical distribution. This debt channel builds its own set of -iLog(i), trying to match investors and borrowers. So the probability of large chunks of new issue is in the background, a knowing that some time soon Italian government will issue the largest chunk of that -iLog(i) set of debt issuance. And the same time a realization that such a large chunk is not available in France. So the little Kelly network wants to collapse, its work done.
2 comments:
Wow so good post i like it so much and i hoipe to visit my blog Télécharger jeux PS Vita Gratuit and it talking about Action Telechargerjeuxpsvitagratuit.blogspot.com thanks again ,,,
Thrilled to discover your website as well as the fantastic images you have frequently!
Post a Comment