Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics Inc. estimates a three-to-four week shutdown would cut growth by 1.4 points. Zandi projects a 2.5 percent annualized pace of fourth-quarter growth without a shutdown. A two-week shutdown starting Oct. 1 could cut growth by 0.3 percentage point to a 2.3 percent rate, according to St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.Bloomberg, Sept 27
Six weeks later growth comes in at 2.8%. How could Zandi be so screwed up? Multipliers are less than one, gdp grew faster with fewer bureaucrats, mainly in California. Is there any other explanation? Mark Zandi is still taking his multipliers from bogus research which always seems to compute a 1.5 multiplier.
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