A parlor game we allow our economists to play. In this case, the question is, what caused the recent quarters of increasing growth with upward surprises in USA growth rate? My candidates:
1) Fracking and the middle east oil disruptions favored the USA
2) California government realignment, sequestering and the tax changes
3) Continuing QE and monopoly monetarism.
4) General failure of emerging markets
5) Side effects from Japanese Abenomics
6) Side effects from austerity in Europe
7) The expected arrival of Janet Yellen and reversal of sequester.
This is round two. I claim the oil shortage was the immediate cause of the crash and is named winner round one.
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