Checking up on the bubble

If you look at the period between peaks, it is about ten years. We know that because the knee of the treasury curve is about ten years. The yield curve will measure the frequency response of the economy, and the economy looks a lot like that SP500 chart. Day to day trading is usually a trade between yield and Earnings per Share on the market.  The give and take is the lending market getting an estimation of the GDP forward response, in frequency space.  One thing is different, the yield curve is sparsely measured, that is, not all loan terms of the of the lending market are active, there is coagulation around the thirty year yield, for example. Hence the yield curve is upward sloping.  But otherwise, the curve is the frequency response of  real GDP.

Do we care? Traders do.  But the interesting thing is having three peaks in a row.  That principle violates the rule that we sparsely populate the bankers yield curve.  The three peaks in a row are too redundant for the lending market, but there we have them, three in a row.  This violates a kind of Pauli exclusion principle in the economy, and I am pretty sure we will not get another cycle.  More likely, this becomes the feared dirac delta, and we are bankrupt. We are fermions, afterall.