The effect of stimulus on California unemployment

Here is the stimulus, green line, and unemployment, California, blue line with national unemployment red line.  Anything at the peak of the stimulus? Not anything that can be noticed without some fraud on the part of the economist.  We can maybe detect one .1% slight bump, in the blue line, that that bump is well within noise. Unemployment setted in California at 12%, and hung in at the level way after the stimulus passed. California was just looking like a large state where unemployment grew fastest and reduced the slowest.

Economist who think they can prove otherwise should show their work.


I had to get up off the couch again.

What motion in unemployment rate are the economists claiming credit for?

Lets look at all the motions of unemployment since 1981.

Are the economists claiming credit because there was no sharp peak in 2009? In 81, we had the sharp peak, it was less in the 92 recession and even less in the 2001 recession.  Did they create a 'peakness' coefficient from those prior recessions? I do not see how.

Any model they had that could explain the level would be in error since their Phillips curve coefficient had been changing and was uncertain, and the only recession at these levels was 30 years past.

Any correlation they could have claimed at the top is not there, it is all symmetric noise.

No, their claims on the American Recovery Act are simply fraud, a desire to confirm their priors.