My big miss

Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.0 percent annual rate as activity picked up broadly after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.

That pushed GDP above the economy's potential growth trend, which analysts put somewhere between a 2 percent and 2.5 percent pace. Economists had forecast the economy growing at a 3.0 percent rate in the second quarter after a previously reported 2.9 percent contraction.

A separate report showing private employers added 218,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, a decline from June's hefty gain of 281,000, did little to change perceptions the economy was strengthening.

The consumer showed up, inventories restocked, and exports grew (probably oil  products). That was my miss.

The increase in gross domestic product in 2011 was lowered to 1.6% from 1.8% and it was trimmed to 2.3% from 2.8% for 2012 . . .  As a result of the changes, the economy expanded at a 2.0% rate from 2011 to 2013 instead of 2.2% as previously reported. Also look at state and local spending below, a 3 point surge.