ALLISON NATHAN: Jan, as Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, you have said that the U.S. economy is now growing above trend for the first time since the global financial crisis, despite the fact that GDP early this year was actually negative. How do you square this?
JAN HATZIUS: It is quite a big contrast between the GDP numbers and other measures of economic activity that we summarize in our current activity indicator, which are higher frequency numbers, such as the payroll numbers, jobless claims, manufacturing surveys and so forth. When we look at those, we see an acceleration in growth really since early 2013, and especially over the last few months, to a year-on-year rate of 2.7 percent at this point. Which is still not superfast, certainly by the standards of past economic recoveries, but it is the fastest pace since the crisis. And it’s the first time really that we’ve been clearly in above-trend growth mode. We would put trend at somewhere between 2 and 2-and-a-half percent. We think the GDP numbers in this particular case are quite misleading. They are quite noisy. They jump up and down a lot. They get revised a lot. So we really think that looking at broader measures of activity that are available from something like our current activity indicator is probably better.
So,WTF are we supposed to do with an activity index?
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