Caught by an accounting shift

The change in medical expenses in Q1 was not as negative as we think, the BEA likely forgot that there was a one time shift in payments.  This quarter the state spending covered last quarter's medical expenses which were undercounted. So I would expect DC spending to rise next quarter as the states bill the feds. In the steady state we are looking at about a 500 billion shift in GDP from consumption and investment (including private medical) to government medical (is a rough guess). That is about .05% of GDP, more or less. Whether the over all shift from private medical to government medical is profitable is still undetermined. We need to watch part time jobs again and see if wage slots are still adapting.


Also, note that Obama changed the oil export rules a bit, allowing a lighter grade of shale oil to be exported.