FRB: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.2 percent on March 2, down from 1.7 percent on February 26. The nowcasts for first-quarter real residential and nonresidential structures investment and for real state and local government spending all declined following this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Not including today's 2% (MoM) drop in auto sales, by the way. So, we can expect the recession calls to perk up. And, as we all know, recessions happen at the end of the eight year presidential term. Obama is trying frantically to find some new revenue to cover interest payments. And the Republican Communist party won't help. Obamacare charges are still rising. The ten year is up to 2%, while the mild deflation is dropping tax revenue.
Here is a scary chart. We almost never drop to this level without a recession. The only two times we avoided the recession was the 2011 Q3, Bernanke negative print for one quarter. The other time was just before the 2008 crash.
And this:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday after a weak auto sales report pulled the Dow and S&P back from their latest records and the Nasdaq dipped below 5,000 the day after scaling the milestone level for the first time in 15 years.
Am I calling a recession? I should, it would help out as I am always wrong.
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