Latest forecast
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.3 percent on March 17, down from 0.6 percent on March 12. Following yesterday morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board that reported a 17 percent decline in oil and gas well drilling in February, the nowcast for first-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth fell from -13.3 percent to -19.6 percent.
Cause? Housing starts plummet. Calculated Risk has a graph:
That would be a .3 YoY GDP growth predicted for this quarter.
Hence my suspicions confirmed, we will see a negative, year over year change in the implicit price deflator, the first since the Nixon Shock. This is a data geek's paradise moment.
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