Top chart, the Ceridian Index, bottom chart, government spendingI am following up on my recent post suggesting we look at the Ceridian index to monitor the Stimulus effect. I compare the chart of federal spending, borrowed from Scott Grannis and the Ceridian index is an economic indicator based on transportation activity, namely trucking.
Lets compare the movement in government spending, as a percent of the GDP assuming Congress spend 1/5 of the economy, with the movement in the Ceridian Index. The Ceridian chart will read off the index values as the cursor tracks the chart, but readers need to click through to use the index.
I have the Ceridian Index rising3% with the 6% (GDP) rise in government spending and dropping to flat after the 1.2% decline in government spending, with a two month lag. I compute the stimulus had an effect, each rise in federal spending (in units of GDP) yielded 1/2 the rise in total units of GDP. But these numbers are strongly changed by the choices of starting points. Depending on where I start and end, I can get multipliers from about .5 to .8, I still do not see anything greater than 1.0
What was the effect of the stimulus on the private sector? Less private sector activity; more trucks were used to haul government goods around and less trucks used to haul private goods around.
1 comment:
She is likely a WARRIOR PERSONALITY I talk about in the KWML Mastery Course on women, dating, love, and friendship.
This way you are not disappointed when you get residence,
and you won't have to make a excursion back to the shop. It is recommended that the golfers select those putters with which the golfers feel good and works well with their gaming pattern.
Feel free to surf to my web blog - http://www.eatingcultures.com
Post a Comment