Here is a bet I might go against

In my opinion we are headed to 4% for the tens and at least 5% on the 30- year. QE is going to produce the exact opposite results of what was intended.

Bruce Krasting who posts often at Zero Hedge. His opinion is that we become debt stressed as a result of Q[E and T](n); mostly E, and n at 2 per year. That is, the Fed inflates us into debt danger.

Problem, oil rises faster than air. We are gonna get oil shortages before we get inflation, shortages I expect any day now, and a reversal; another small but real deflation. Lower yields, flatter curve. The consumer's focus us on the gas pump, when customer queue at the pump gets long, the consumer begins a contraction the next day. The American consumer is the most flexible consumer regarding energy use, there is a lot of infrastructure that supports sudden changes in inventory cycle at the consumer level. A dance is happening, between OPEC and the American consumer, a very interesting dance which sets the inflation rate. On the other side is the Chinese transportation machine which is still taking oil share. As is likely, America may gain efficiency faster; but that inflation is years away.