Here is a plot of the Fed policy in federal funds rate, the green line. What were te efficetive constraints of the policy rule over time?
Part one is the run up in rates as inflation became dominant from mid 2004 until mid 2007. After the run up, the policy rule is dominated by output gap as the Fed rapidly reverses course.
So was the Fed following CPI core or CPI with energy? Who knows, both the volatiles and the core we running up during the inflationary period, but when output gap dominates, neither inflation measure predicts rates, but the volatiles fololwed rates down as gap rose. So, the final result is a rate curve that actually follows the volatiles.
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