My proxy for gains from specialization
Does it makes sense for the producer to branch out and offer a greater variety of products? Yes, when the producer sees constrained output and surplus input. We can measure this, and it is called the gains from specialization. My proxy is the ratio computed above in the graph. The ratio also tells us when the gains are too small to maintain the current product variety. Note the gains were 1.0 at the start of the depression. Producers barely able to get by. Look now. Notice also that this ratio correctly identifies recent recessions.
M1 is the retail velocity, our closest measure of it. M1 velocity is going to drop down to 1995 levels, that is a rank reduction, and the next rank down is 1990. We are reducing rank.
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