Friday, September 6, 2013

The evolution of knowledge in a class action global warming lawsuit

I love that title, I am going to sell it to a UC professor. What is that about? Set the scene. The bicycle commuters of San Francisco sue big oil for damages due to post industrial inclement weather. They win, maybe something like $500 per year. Why did they win? They had an expectation of pre-industrial weather, they are pre-industrial. But they still used electricity, their award was not complete. Assume everyone obeys the judge, damages collected at the coal mine, oil well and oil port of entry. How does the system equilibriate as more and more claimants submit additions to the class? Two things are going on. The claimants are all motivated to prove their non-emissions, by accurate measurement. All parties are motivated to get the facts on future damages. Hence the estimate on the consequences of global warming improve. The system settles when all parties agree on the future out to 30 years, the depreciation schedule of a refinery. Co2 levels adjust to match, they drive the match. Simple, cheap, and the industry of co2 management is born, problem solved.

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