Investors want Fed insurance

Ask an investor, what is your second biggest worry, he will say GDP slow down, which means lower dividend yield. So says Political Calculations. Political Calculations: A New View of Future Expectations for the S&P 500

We'll do that by remaking our favorite chart - the one that shows how changes in the year-over-year growth rate of today's stock prices keep pace with changes in the year-over-year growth rates of the dividends per share that are expected at specific points of time in the future

Their main theory about yields (as measured by dividend yield) is that investors have two states, the stable brownian motion state and scatter and regroup state, levy flight, a sort of scatter and regroup.. The later state is, I think a restructring of the portfolios that make up the broker distribution. Now remember back a year or two, I was doing Huffman encoding of the SP500. In periods of stability, the Huffman encoder should see fewer groupings, all the spots are filled and the market shows no new information. During periods of levy flight, the Huffman encoder shows periods of innovation, because the Huffman encoder was backward looking, and it saw the formation of structure.
This is really portfolio effect. The stock market dividend is a low dimensional estimator of future nominal gdp growth. A big component of estimated gdp growth is Fed bubbles and government channel losses.
What's going on with this and declining capital expenditures?
I dunno yet, that is what I am looking for.