Ben Leubsdorf at the WSJ says

Health-Care Revenue Rebound Could Boost U.S. Economic Growth

Total revenue at health-care and social-assistance firms rose 3% in the second quarter from the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its Quarterly Services Survey. Hospital revenue rose 2.8% from the first quarter and revenue at physician offices jumped 4.1%.

But how does this surge affect other sectors? He does not say.  Here is how it affects government debt service:

 The blue line, straight up.  It is Obamacare bills and roll over of debt all piling up now. And that is driving up the ten year.  Now up to 2.6, but should be 2.8 with the two year at .56. Likely to rise to 3.0 plus much faster than economists think.

The high rates are driving up mortgage costs, and mortgage rates are the single important determinant of the housing market.

We are also seeing the dollar rise as a result of higher rates. That in turn drives up imports, further dropping domestic growth. And capital gains taxes from the market are running low after the one time payout.  The result of the Obamacare bunching will be several downward revisions og GDP growth.


How about California home sales?

SST September 11, 2014 - An estimated 37,228 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide in August. That was down 6.0 percent from 39,608 in July, and down 12.5 percent from 42,546 sales in August 2013, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data.

August sales have varied from a low of 29,764 in 1992 to a high of 73,285 in 2005. Last month's sales were 21.6 percent below the average of 47,456 sales for all the months of August since 1988, when Irvine-based CoreLogic DataQuick's statistics begin. California sales haven’t been above average for any month in more than eight years.

And part time work?

 Part time work shoots up just when healthcare spending goes up. Bad indicator, it means fewer taxes and fewer Obamacare taxes especially. Employment growth over all is stable, no batch of new jobs are coming down the line.

How much new debt?
Optimistically, Obamacare adds 1% of GDP to the deficit. Realistically, make that 2%.  DC is stable when the debt service, including the social security payments, are at the ten year rate. The deficit is now 3.56% of GDP, but if that jumps to 5% then the ten year goes to 3.5%.

But consumer spending is up. Yes, byt 2.5%, was the number I think.  But over half of that will go to imports and be a negative on growth.

How bad a recession? Maybe be a simple slog, a few quarters of struggle as the interest payments work their way through. But it could also be a continuing build up of Obamacare bills, we do not know. Watch California, the previous recession started there, the current slow down will likely start there.