The jobs picture is all cyclical

Here the Yahoo reporter repeats all the old rules about structural vs cyclical unemployment.  Demographics is cyclical, cyclical on a 30 year period.  Still caused by DC where the tax and benefit system causes demographic changes over time.  Why the phase alignment of the baby boomers? Simple, the social security system incentivizes cycles. After an eight year recession cycle, retirement become counted in units of eight years, plus or minus. That, in turn, reinforces the eight year. What is different is  the thirty year cycle, counted in units of eight, has reached retirement age and the two cycles coincide.

Yahoo: The Federal Reserve has had its foot on the gas for so long that the conventional wisdom says a tap of the brakes can’t be far away. But just when and how hard the Fed should hit those brakes is still the subject of furious debate. The right answer — what’s really best for the economy — depends in large part on how much “slack” there is in the labor market, and economists readily admit that’s a hard measure to gauge. 

Since the Great Recession, the labor force participation rate — the percentage of the population gainfully employed or looking for work — has dropped significantly. Part of the reason is demographic, because the baby boom generation is hitting retirement age. As a result, labor force participation started declining before the recession and is projected to continue that decline for at least another decade. Demographic changes and other similar issues not specifically related to economic conditions are referred to as “structural” effects. 

Related: Fed Watching – the Interest Rate Guessing Game Is Back in Style 

Part of the change clearly has to do with the economic cycle — “cyclical” effects. It hasn’t just been older Americans dropping out of the workforce; the percentage of men between ages 25 and 54 has fallen to multi-decade lows. The aftermath of the Great Recession saw extraordinarily high levels of long-term unemployment. Many of those who were unemployed for more than 27 months (the rough definition of “long-term” joblessness) became “discouraged” and left the labor force, which meant that they were no longer counted among the unemployed for purposes of official recordkeeping.