Scott says look at quarterly growth rates

Scott Sumner on the Keynesian shell game. During the course of 2013, real GDP growth was almost twice as fast as during 2012, and nominal GDP growth also accelerated. Today some Keynesian like to minimize the austerity program of 2013, acting like nothing of importance happened.  

OK, the Keynesian are goof ball, but its hard to see exactly the difference between 2012 and the austerity of 2013. One problem is the negative Obamacare/polar vortex dip in Q1 2014, that one point screws up the series. The problem is this chart:

 We have been doing the austerity ever since we dumped the stimulus.  The difference we see only comes in 2014, the Obamacare/defense spending increasing. And that was mostly defense, so far. And even that spending only reverts back to the level of 2011 Q2.

I predicted more Obamacare slow down, but it has not happened. What we got instead were state budget cuts elsewhere in the budget to offset the costs.  Economic effects are barely observable of short time periods, until the recession comes.

Recession!

OK, look at the path of federal spending since 2005, up, up, and up, until 2010.  For two years before the crash and one year after the crash.  What can we say? We crashed! Ever since Obama dumped the stimulus and stopped spending, we didn't crash.