In spring of 2016 we have an option. Take some losses, and trigger the blue bar in retrospect, or try for another year and risk the drunken helicopter pilot?
Some surprises may await us. Christmas sales are up 10%. Subtract out imports, average; and we might get an unexpected 1% extra growth this Q4. Chinese home buyers may show up. Texas and the oil patch will cost us a half point, Illinois will cost a quarter. California might have a mild uptick in unemployment. The New York real estate market is in bear. And we have DC policy changes in taxes and Obamacare; hence our Q1 slowdown is coming. Canada will drop us a quarter. How is Mexico doing? They look OK.
This is borderline downturn, and we have some control over the dating committee. Take our lumps in spring, via a revision. Is that within the rules? We risk a coordination failure if the monetary regime change is fooled by the arrival of pure digital cash. So by sneaking in a quicky recession now, finance can reset their clocks for banker bot's arrival.
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