Wednesday, December 23, 2015

I take on Brad's graph

His key charts to decompose demand.

1) Total government purchases down.  One thing, California, New York, and Illinois; the first, fourth and fifth largest.  Also the First, fourth and seventh most insolvent,  They have pension costs.

2) Housing is down relative to its peak, in 2007, where this graph references. But that was a bubble, so maqke the adjustment and housing is OK.

3) Business investment recovered just like it always does.

4) Exports up! Hurray, a partial rebalance fro m the years of government induced deficits.



How do we get cause and effect with QE?

We compare this crash with the five previous, how was this one different.  We are at the end of the central banker debt cycle, its helicopter time.



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