Saturday, January 2, 2016

Ontario is Illinois

Financial PostThe numbers tell the story. Ontario is the largest sub-national debtor in the entire world, just one alarming distinction. Its debt is more than twice that of California, a state with three times the population and one that has its own severe fiscal problems. Its debt is $294 billion, or over $21,000 per capita. Net debt to GDP is up 48 per cent in the past 10 years to almost 40 per cent, second only to Quebec. Last year’s interest obligations totalled $11.4 billion, about the same as the cost of community and social services. I doubt many Ontarians realize how much they are paying just in interest on the provincial debt. It averages $840 per person every year and rising. Not surprisingly, Standard and Poor’s downgraded Ontario’s bond credit from AA- to A+, citing a very high debt burden and very weak budgetary performance
The province’s plight cannot be blamed on the previous federal government, which increased transfers to Ontario by 88 per cent since 2006 (compared to an average of 62 per cent to all provinces). Health care, most people’s number one concern, was up 70 per cent, but the Province did not spend all the money it received for health care on health care. As an Ontario resident, I take no pleasure that my province receives equalization payments from the federal government because it became a ‘have not” province in 2009. What a change from when, out of pride, Premier Bill Davis declined equalization between 1977 and 1982.  Still, since 2009 Ontario has been complaining loudly it received too little, at least until the Liberals took power in Ottawa.

Ontario is part of the Great lakes economy, Chicago the economic.  Something is wrong in the rust belt, likely suffering from the south westward migrations.  Whatevr, it is having a dust up at the moment and is part of the lost momentum.

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