A lot of hissing sounds

Profits decline:

Time: Late last week, the Department of Commerce said corporate profits before taxes fell 11.5%, by nearly $160 billion, from a year ago. For the year, profits decreased $64 billion, compared to an increase of $35 billion in 2014 from the year before.

And job cuts:

Challenger-Grey Staffing: In all, US-based employers reported 75,114 planned job cuts to kick off 2016. That is a 218 percent increase from a 15-year low of 23,622 in December. January was 42 percent higher than the same month a year ago, when employers announced 53,041 job cuts.
Last month represents the highest monthly tally since July 2015, when cuts reached 105,696. It was the largest January total since 241,749 job cuts were announced during the first month of 2009.
Despite relatively strong holiday sales to close out 2015, retailers led all other industries in January job cuts, announcing plans to cut 22,246 jobs from their payrolls. That was the highest retail total since January 2009, when retailers announced 53,968 planned layoffs.

And conflicting interpretation:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, but remained below a level associated with a strong labor market.
Another report on Thursday showed announced job cuts by U.S.-based employers fell in March for a second straight month. 

How close to a recession?  The Nowcaster has Q1 at .6%.  One piece of bad insider info could revise Q1 negative.  If Asians stopped buying houses out West, then Q1 revises down a quarter point, to .35, or basically zero. And the next claims report surprises to the downside, we might have to call it.  So, tell me the probability of good or bad news.