Dinged by housing dump

The NowCast bot took a dive based on housing stops.  Its  a bit worse since housing did not stop in the west; from Vancouver to San Diego, god love the Asian rebalance.  But then, the NorthEast  housing is a lot worse, and growth in places like Illinois is down.  Texas is still a boomtown, I hear, in spite of the uptick in unemployment.

So work the growth averages, Texas way above 1.5, California near 1.5; see how there is not much for the NorthEast? The view is very asymmetric.  A larger skew in the probability distribution predicts a sudden stop in timer.

Note, this is residential, and residential has been effected by capital flows in a regulated environment, and it has been out of season. Construction employment is the confounding coefficient.  So, in the extreme, the Vancouver bubble comes to California.  We cannot price risk because we will be certain of a sudden stop.