It takes a large number of transactions to generate one surplus transaction. A lotta ducks have to be in a row.
Why so many ducks? We aggregate too much, its a long path across the dollar economy, that is a lotta transactions to step through before we get our goodie. Ask the millennials.
How many? One over rate?
Or a huge chunk of entitlements to squeeze through the corridor.
Producers would say, yes, makes sense it corresponds to yield, as in surplus generated from a process.
Add cause and effect and then everyone goes nuts.
We just got rates hiked, the one year government bill is .77. For some reason, the market thinks congress can get more yield (or less losses), and thus pay higher rates as supplied by wealthier taxpayers. But, the ten year still has resistance at 2.5, that would be G pushing back, saying, our yield ain't that high. There are still a whole lot of expected payments, across many parts of G , state, federal and local, there is no surplus until those bills are paid. Hence, it is impossible to make the interest payments on another bulge, we will hut down.
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