One year at 1.45%

Each day we start a bit higher.  Each day a little more of the stock market leaks back to the one year treasury.  A point rise picks off another bunch of wealth investors.

Look at the blue line, treasuries held.  It hasn't changed in three years, yet the excess reserves  change weekly in this graph.  If we net out all flows and compute effective rat, the Fed as the overnight at 1.25 and the three year at 1.2515, a 15 basis point difference which is exactly the cost of Fed expenses.  This cannot be correct, the Fed is attempting a move way off of equilibrium.