With unemployment reaching very low levels in major economies, despite low – and slowly rising – inflation, it's time for central banks to rethink their reliance on the so-called natural rate. No numerical target for this rate can serve as an anchor for monetary policy.
EDMUND S. PHELPS is worth listening to, but tradebook theory helps a bit because the labor market is the exception to the rule.
The labor market require extensive intermediaries who come and go depending upon the state of the economy. Thus, the matching error cannot be bound to a wiener process with indexable events that can form a smooth pricing surface. The matching rules change arbitrarily as hiring managers put more or less market expertise on the job.
It is not demand that drives the labor market between limit swings, it is the necessity if rebuilding the labor markets itself.
It is not demand that drives the labor market between limit swings, it is the necessity if rebuilding the labor markets itself.
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