Interpreting Fed actions

Let us use sandbox causality and call Treasury a member bank and make the Fed our S&L spreadsheet function which assigns interest charges based on buy/sell imbalances in he current two color queues..

The red line, the one year rate, we call that current interest charges, and the green, short term treasuries held, we call the Treasury cash in advance borrowings.  

A few points, from 2012 to 2015, interest charges were as low as possible yet Treasury hardly took cash in advance. A stupidity which was well noticed by everyone, including Summers, the  previous secretary of treasury.

Prior to the crash, interest charges were up, consistently, yet Treasury kept its existing short term borrowings, Treasury is not responding to interest charges.  It finally began to stop borrowing just before the crash, but interest charges were already falling.

In other words, treat Treasury as a  member bnnk and most ot the errors are explained as horrible accounting.  The real error is the implicit, the Fed only sees that is six months late, at best, and that is the only valid inflation indicator, the separator between real and inflationary growth. The correct target is the current distribution of deposits vs cash in advance, two color matched.   Start there, that is the minimal state machine we need.  I

It really  is Treasury that needs to be honest. Treasury is actually honest, this is came up in House hearings, and was publicly discussed.  There is no corrective theory, not theory that makes government a special borrower.  Whatever excuse made, the fact remains, bad Treasury policy makes the Fed look six months late.  So if fiscal policy is the real target, then put Treasury  in charge and replace the Fed with S&L spreadsheet function. Or better yet, just download the standard S&L auto-pit, hit go.

No jews allowed in anti bias training

Starbucks drops Jewish group from anti-bias training session: report

So the Jews dunnit after all. They tried to blame the Rednecks.  Now us Rednecks have to get 'unbiased' but the Jews get a free pass. 

Back to idle on sandbox

I  have not much more to add and the start ups seem to get issues.  They are ahead of me for a while, and I am getting fairly lazy.

Sell the peak day at the markets

Pension fund managers taking the opportunity.

An unexpected 10% in the deficit

The U.S. Treasury borrowed $488 billion from January through March, a record high for the quarter, as the department increased its cash buffer and prepares for widening budget deficits.During the first three months of this year, the department borrowed about $47 billion more than it had previously estimated, according to a statement released Monday in Washington. The end-of-March cash balance was $290 billion, compared with an initial estimate of $210 billion.

 Most of that deficit covered the rise in interest charges. This seems close to a trillion dollar deficit this year.

We see DSGE in sandbox

The Solow model is what might happen if the channel version recursively let the window sizes grow. Solow finds the smooth path to the ratio of capital to labor. 

This would be a two color model filling a finite channel in our view.  Each of the buy and sell queues constantly adapting to its allocated channel share. They have tint, slightly varying, The pit boss forces them to white at balance.

The more colors the more confinement as the pit boss gets extra bandwidth, its a monopoly exchange, after all. Imagine the simple three color currency pit, Quark Exchange, we call it. Traders engage in triple entry accounting against three currencies. Powerful tool, likely defeats bitcoin.

Heart problems for meth heads

Ms. Whitefield, 28, had developed endocarditis, an infection of the heart valves caused by bacteria that entered her blood when she injected methamphetamine one morning in 2016. Doctors saved her life with open-heart surgery, but before operating, they gave her a jolting warning: If she continued shooting up and got reinfected, they would not operate againWith meth resurgent and the opioid crisis showing no sign of abating, a growing number of people are getting endocarditis from injecting the drugs — sometimes repeatedly if they continue shooting up. Many are uninsured, and the care they need is expensive, intensive and often lasts months. All of this has doctors grappling with an ethically fraught question: Is a heart ever not worth fixing?

Not too many will be thrilled with the billions in Obamacare costs for these meth heads. 

I pointed out many times, in Fresno wer have entire neighborhoods stuck on the stuff and they cannot even fill out a form. They mostly wander around and sleep in bushes.  Dealing with them is a horrible waste of money in an era where the unions want all the money.

I found the best cure for meth addiction is to reject the meth head entirely.  As everyone takes that attitude, the meth head has no money, can't buy the drug. Recovery time is over a year, it is a severe lesion in the brain. 

Iranian islamic nuts have short war

Massive Fireballs Light Up Syrian Sky After Israeli Strike; "Dozens" Of Iranian Soldiers Reportedly Killed

I don't quite get this. The iranian islamic  generals send a plane load of kids to kill jews. Israel blows them up.  The is not a smart islamic general. Somethings in the middle east seem quite delusional.

NRA terrorist plot to kill Pence foiled

Parkland shooting survivors cry hypocrisy after NRA bans guns during Pence speech

The secret service discovered the NRA was planning a massive violation of the Second's well regulated clause.  A  secret service raid uncovered the devious assassination plot, saved the VP's  life.

Britain has a surplus?

A milestone has been reached, somewhat earlier than officially expected, and I feel honour bound to take note of it. After the global financial crisis wreaked havoc on Britain’s public finances, part of the repair process has now been completed.
The current budget, the difference between day-to-day public spending and tax revenues moved back into surplus in the fiscal year just ended, 2017-18. This was the first time this has happened for 16 years. The deficit on this measure peaked at £100.4bn in 2009-10. Now it is surplus, admittedly by a tiny amount, £112m, but in surplus nonetheless.
In the context of the disappointing growth figures, a 0.1% increase in gross domestic product in the first quarter and just 1.2% over the past year, this is surprising.
In eight years, more than £100bn has been taken off the deficit. George Osborne’s original 2010 target, of eliminating the current budget deficit, has been achieved, admittedly a couple of years later than he hoped. He also hoped to still be around as chancellor to celebrate this moment but events intervened.

  Good for them. They now have a bit of liquidity and can reduce some short term interest charges.

Parents want school an extension of home

Intelligent parents spend surplus labor and cash on school activities. Here we have the usual busing issue, the plan being invite 25% from disadvantaged parents. 

The plan is designed to make Upper West Side schools more reflective of New York City’s diverse demographics, and make sure underprivileged students have access to the sorts of advantages and resources that the neighborhood’s well-funded schools can provide.
Well, that plan didn’t go over so well in a room full of wealthy white parents.

The basic freedom for parents to get involved in the schools is restricted,  will not work. 

What is a free market?

Corporate social responsibility vs laissez-faire?

Econolog delves into the debate about laissez faire.  This quote from Uncle Milt:

It is the responsibility of the rest of us to establish a framework of law such that an individual in pursuing his own interest is, to quote Adam Smith again, 'led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.' 

Milt is a bit of a socialist.  And his brand of socialism results in the structured stock market with no liability implied by shareholdings.  The market listings by government license. 

Milt ends up with the valued added chain, the debt pushing cartel, and leaves most private firms out of this market. But then Milt didn't have sandbox.

I treat the rednecks nice

University of California-San Diego (and other UC campuses) you’ll also be required to submit one more document that could have a huge impact on your chances of getting hired — a “Contributions to Diversity Statement” for any faculty position, here are some details:

All candidates applying for faculty appointments at UC San Diego are required to submit a personal statement on their contributions to diversity.

That, and a bit of kinship with the little browns. I done my coloring, send me a check.

Cheap narcotics meets explosion in homeless

"There's Crack And Heroin Everywhere" - Homeless Set Up Shooting Gallery Inside SF BART Station

Just part of the urban camping trend in Calizuela.

The abyss looks better

California Pension Overhaul Bills KilledThree bills aimed at lowering state pensions costs are shot down by Senate committee.

When default becomes inevitable all parties stop and wait for the bankruptcy judge

Symmetries and probability orbits

First, economics has few discernable orbits as SNR is close to one  across the market functions.  Contrast with quarks under confinement yielding a point source positive charge.  The electron cloud gets little bandwidth share and the compressive match with positive clouds results in multiple solutions about symmetry. In the generator model of the negative cloud, these symmetries should appear as transpositions of a generator node which equally result in matching error below Plank, the market error. 

Symmetries are homomorphic  transpositions,  and the generator, using this model,  should follow the lay out of orbitals in physics. 

In economics the symmetries appear as equivalent re-orderings in inventory. For example, transmission and engine production have ordering redundancies. These symmetries are rare and hard to track. 

We Ved ok with respect to the monetary cycle

El-Erian spouting the usual rant against economists:

Most made the mistake of treating the crisis as a cyclical shock and forecast a V-type growth snapback. They were prisoners of an excessive mean-reversion mindset: They acknowledged that growth was taking a huge hit due to severe financial dislocations, but they forecast that economic activity would bounce back strongly and inclusively.

Let us look:

The blue is the ten year yield and it seems to follow the fiscal theory if we model the 1973 fiscal shock over its full length, 60 years.

The red line is the implicit deflator and its dip was quite V like.  We are done pricing the 1973 gold default. We have discovered the pricing errors and will be charged interest.  No big deal, but we will have another generational fiscal shock.

Doing quarks with generators

W3e want to exend the simple two color shared trade space to three colors and observe the gluon effect. Even though this is a data sampling model, under sampling and over sampling have equivalent effects as space-time distortion.  We can show the generator models have three color confinement because the 'pit boss' inherits extra sample space

In this case,we have three semi-random encoders' generating liquidity  events which must fit the finite sample space.  Each of the three trading queues observes the bandwidth remaining for two other generators as a force, SNR means bandwidth share.  But, notice that each generator, in its construction, must allow space for the matching error.

Two things happen, SNR goes way down and channel allocation drops for all three.  The amount of uncertainty allocated to the 'gluon; is a third higher than the two color case.  In trading terms, the pit boss has a lot more market space to work with, it is over allocated. 

The pit boss is over sampling the queues, and the queues are slightly undersampled.  If you work through the space time Wilson loop analogy we will see a three generator model emerge in sample data form

The speed of light warping in time/space becomes an aliasing problem in sampled data.

Helping central banks into sandbox

Ripple Announce Partnership With International Central Bank Network

SNR, log and trade space

Consider a value added chain as a generator producing the typical sequence of total trade events in the chain.  Then at maximum entropy we expect that chain to be a two color,the pit boss getting abut six bits of significance from the semi independent buyer and seller queues. The pit boss makes up another two bits, we have an eight bit fixed indexing channel.

Let us rename SNR to bandwidth share. Buyers and sellers work in a noisy channel, each has to accommodate both the potential counter parties and the pit bos.  If either trader knows the general ratio, then a log base 2 gives them the number of bits, if this were a canonical twos complement trading system.

But, it is not, at least nit until the pit boss merges streams, collects market error. Hence, following right along, we get a Huffman encoding of the two queues, since the trade bids are not canonical.

So, when we hear that traders are log pricing that means they are quantum mechanical traders, they know they are trading large cap stocks forming a value added chain. As a distribution network, log gives the rank of the trade, are far down the tree a trade travels before it finds a match.

Te concept of Huffman coding creating generators that have aggregate ratio algebras, one distribution network can be made homomorphic with anther, it the pit boss is willing to carry approximation risk. It is a transformation that turns the N-graph coloring problem into an approximate version of a whiteming process on a finite index space, I am pretty sure.

Q1 doldrums vanquished

Good gdp report, 2.3%, soon to be revised down a bit as trade balance comes in. 

Good, but more important, the repubs have broken the Q1 doldrums, the cost of adjusting to yearly tax increases under Obama. The repub attitude was, 'nightmare quarter' and I agree, now gone. Closer to default, but these debt levels look like death anyway. 

Police and gun clubs have a close relationship

My son was suspended from school and the police are investigating because he went to the gun range — with me

I would put the liability on the gun club to evaluate and record the deployment of arms. The well regulated militia part puts the gun club in the chain of command.  

Escrow net

Nymbus Will Help Banks Launch A Standalone Brand in 90 Days
 Nymbus, a startup taking on what is arguably banking’s biggest problem — aging, outdated cores — announced a new product today called SmartLaunch, which “enables financial institutions to stand up a turnkey digital brand under their existing charter in as few as 90 days.” 
 This is an interesting move from Nymbus. Rather than converting an existing core (or cores, in the case of many banks) Nymbus proposes to build a new core alongside the old one, and even help develop an ancillary brand. This can be an inexpensive alternative to the “heart transplant” a core replacement requires, and can allow banks to test modern cores with a smaller customer base. 

And it comes with order book of things to connect, including prequals. Complete with escrow language. Sandbox in action.

Get prequalified in Malta

The Cabinet of Malta has approved three bills related to cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. One bill in particular, the Virtual Financial Assets Bill, provides a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings.

You bots in winnipeg get a crypto badge, enforced in any swap or escrow net.   So this becomes the central bank gateway.

At least let them pre qualify

Central Bank Of Iran Bans Banks From Crypto Dealings

Iran cannot ban its banks from escrow net, unfair.  Iran can pre-select the order of privilege, but we gonna price that anyway.

 Suggest Iran adopt an observable queue system for gaining and losing official access to escrow net. 
Ruskie have that problem with oligarch banking. No priced entry and exit, just the occasional killings.

Is there a hurricane coin?

Regarding my proposed hurricane prediction market. My market generates the best channel prediction when the gulf hurricane alley is modeled as value added chaotic chain. The market discovers the liquidity algebra and generates a synthetic derivative, an exchange trade fund. Then bettors carries a fund share on margin, it is liquid at coin exchanges.

Not a real coin, not a unit of account. The resulting insurance bonds are a pretty good unit of account, they are a risk bet based upon hurricane derivatives. Insurance is a second layer. General transactions are not hurricane backed except around Puerto Rico, southern Florida and New Orleans.

We should note the definition of a discount coin, as they have a long history.  In the gulf economy merchants could very well accept hurricane derivatives for price discount. Frequent flyer works this way.

Smart cards allow this. I would already expect hardware stores to offer hurricane discounts as they correct for measured hurricane allocations native to gulf. Whatever its current form, sandbox supports.

Why did he fake it?

RONNY WITHDRAWS! 

It was the obvious delusion. Like, if you offered me the job of central banker I would call you nuts, obviously.

Resorting in the auto market

Detroit (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales in April likely fell nearly 8 percent from the same month in 2017 despite big discounts for consumers, industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said on Thursday.

Sort of an egad here, and reopens the debate on Q3 blue bar.  Ford is doing a product revamp leading to a  labor resort.  The stock market resorting as we well as public sector markets.

This is 'watched pot', I call it.   Labor observes the effect first, unpleasant it  may be, it is not unexpected. Add the priced in hurricanes and we have a possible, slight recession.

Pension stampede?

Initial Claims Drop To 49-Year Low But Durable Goods Orders Disappoint

Retrain or retire? 

Municipalities plan fewer new hires. Older employees see new workers retrain instead. Older worker uses flexible retirement to escape.  This is a resorting of labor skills, we do not like doing it all at once but Calizuela forces our hand.

Pricing hurricanes?

Mish noticed the Jolts data, after third revision, so this is accurate.

The cross over is likely the Black Swan of multiple hurricanes.  Gulf insurance rates go up as we get two hurricane disasters over 20 years, insurance companies can nark the tail end of the asymmetric distribution. Black swan becomes gray swan, a congested crawl back due to potential hurricane. The southern gulf economies need a requant to accommodate the hurricane queue.

The requant should be minor except that it can be a  recession trigger, not a  cause. The other exception is the add on of California fires, as those come with continued drought.  

In sandbox the insurance costing becomes a prediction market. Under current system we have a re-insurance market.  

We need the shortest pricing path is to bet hurricane landfalls along the gulf for the current season. We use measured strength as significance measure.  The market mechanism generates the expected insurance denominations needed as if the gulf hurricanes came through a restricted channel and needed compressive coding to fit.  

Sand box can do this, it can price periodic predictions because it manages bets and bet congestion as congested queues thus price stabilized. Bets build up as data comes in during periodic hurricane season. But the machine hits traders with congestion fees and our Coasian theory tells us that stable queues everywhere make relative pricing uniform.

This goes to the heart of the theory of nothing. Hurricane alley really is a constricted channel.  Research everywhere seems to be solving these chaotic systems using the theory of nothing. They solve for the finite element orientations the channel itself needs, as if the hurricane and the data geek summing finite elements suffer the same 'algebra'. The data geek can now approximate hurricane algebra much better. Bettors rest assured no one has unpriced information on hurricane alley.


The ultimate  insider for hurricane betting is the weather geek getting first data look.  He is exactly like the LIBOR fixer, we want him to rig the prediction market, the geek will be driven to conduct the same betting algebra that hurricanes themselves use. Since we are entropy maximizing, we have the minimum variance algebra to price gulf storm insurance. Un the ultimate incarnation, the data geej is an escrow enforced protocol. But absent that, we want the data geek to have a smart cash card that he may thumb print his bet as the data comes in.

SNR in the economic channel

The buyer observes uncertainty in the channel, and so does the seller. They are observing their  share of  index space. That should be correct, share of transaction space, noting the significant and rare events take  more  index space. The SNR values driven to maximize second derivative, the great combinatorics reduce market making error, if we use tanh solution.

Pit boss should be seeing spare index, each side has to independently cover the market maker cost.  The spare index is like the pit boss catching things one trade before either buyer or seller.

Every generation is less bonehead than the previous

A Majority Of Millennials Blame Baby Boomers For Destroying Their Lives

Evolution is supposed to work.  I am sure the boomers won't mind a bit of defaulting.

Their exchange keeps a loose peg to stablecoin

A leading cryptocurrency exchange in India, Zebpay, has introduced crypto-to-crypto trading on its platform. The launch closely follows the Reserve Bank of India banning banks from servicing crypto exchanges. Meanwhile, Zebpay celebrated its 3 millionth app download.

We already have the equivalent of swapnet, so  any domestic barrier is immediately replaced with an external peg taking one of the second shortest paths.  

This is the central bank inherent misunderstanding, they are facing high speed swap nets, the things that cannot queue and these always have the second shortest paths. CBs are fighting a red herring, coins. Coins are not scary, all ownership is liquid on swapnet.

It is not hard to keep the peg because a large segment of trader are taking the second shortest route.  They arrive deliberately planning portfolio about their domestic currency, via dollars, which peg to stablecoins.  On net we get a synthetic peg to the local currency, and the local currency a bit weaker.

Central banks, take opposite approach, jump in.

Cat was yesyerday, Boeing is today

Dow Jumps After Boeing Smashes Earnings: Guides Higher As Tax Rate Tumbles

The tax cut is forcing a sort process among the indices, especially  ETFs. So, who knows if this holds.

Weapons are restricted by the Second

Weapons Are Just Tools. It's People Who Are Dangerous.

The Second, especially the 'well regulated militia ' part, places weapons in a special category. J.D. Tuccille at Reason might brush up on reading skills.

Debt cartel needs wealthier clients

The recent spike in market volatility “suggests there is good reason to worry about how well liquidity will be provided during episodes of market duress,” Charles Himmelberg, a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist wrote in a recent report.“This could contribute to price declines and possibly prolonged periods of financial instability.”

On the margin, it is the wealthy that supplies liquidity. 

Ten year at 3%

A wall that triggered stock sales.

That yield on safe debt becomes more valuable than the indices. The safe rate comes with prepaid insurance. So we hit the wall on index betting, small issue. The bigger issue is turbulence when large pension funds rebalance.

Planning the lay off before the bill passes

The California Chamber of Commerce added three more pieces of legislation last week to its “job killer” list for 2018. In total, the group has identified 24 bills – 18 new and 6 carried over from last year.

We be doing this for years in Calizuela. 

Bellwether!

Caterpillar Just Gave a Huge Vote of Confidence to the Global Economy

Futures up. This is a bit of good news. 
Now let us see if pension funds sell the peak. 

NRA Terrorist

The police also said Sunday that Reinking's firearms authorization was revoked after his 2017 arrest at the request of the FBI. Authorities had seized four weapons belonging to him but returned them to Reinking's father, who said he returned them to his son.

The unregulated gun distributors say, fine and dandy, give crazy kids assault weapons.   This is a violation of the Second, and the cost of regulating these militia is via gun tax Complete the command and control so deranged Repub parents will not longer send their kids out on mass killing sprees.

If necessary, go ahead and increase the opioid dose for both fathers and sons.

Digital bearer assets

Universal Central Bank Digital Currency?

Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz , like most commentators on the subject, needs to take the extra effort to distinguish between digital bearer set and digital non-bearer assets.  Note I always have to leave the adjectives in, the whole list, ('digital', 'bearer', 'asset').  It is all digital, every agent can independently check the watermark without counterfeit, it is not just a unit of account but  any stable executable ownership contract, 

Tell them, pretend to be a $20 bill, make a digital version of that thing.  They always start with the central bank checking the watermark, exactly the opposite of what a $20 bill watermark is for. After four of five posts on the subject, these two will have the 'Ah ha' moment.

Queues, queues and more

The authors do the wonderful thing, show how a central bank can alter the ratio of demand to supply for money. That is a nothing burger, everything in the auto cash layer is queue stabilized, saying central banks know a bit of the skill means nothing.

KYC

Kentucky Fried Customers, know your customer.  Completely irrelevant discussion. We can know enough truth abut the contract to proceed with the trade, and the customer can remain an anonymous thumb print.  We can do this because it uses the same technology as digital bearer cash. Add enforce trading restrictions on digital bearer cash and it become digitalberer asset. 

We use the same technology to counterfeit proof and enforce contracts. We learn about our customers before hand, then pre-qualify them with crypto badges. Thus, KYC rules are just like any other contract, and do not clog the escrow networks.

Issuing liquidity by libor fixing

Banks are not really currency issuers, rather they issue liquidity within their preset allowances.  They give traders advanced reserves guarantees that they trade with others having liquidity.

The LIBOR scandal, major overnight money traders  were fixing rates, and in doing so they became de facto currency issuers of the simoly variety, the standard S&L.  Their daily price fixings was the absorption of matching error from the night before. The collection of senior traders count the necessary interest charged to cover last night's imbalance, an asynchronous system since they will not fix if there is no imbalance.  .Works well, the libor became a stable unit of uncertainty for a variety of trading pits in banking, the whole banking algera as accurate as the LIBOR is asynchronously. adjusted.

How does the S&L pit boss maintain stability?

In its job, it is the first bot to notice the imbalance.  So the pit boss always has the minimum available hedge, it always observes the last trade before anyone else; it has to stack the bid or ask on the trees.

In the market making function, the pit boss earns some round off error when there is a dearth of deposit and loses round off error in a dearth of loans. In the prequalified system, a borrower may snooker the pit boss getting the job done sooner than expected and returning deposits, sooner. A bit error loser. It is stable during normal price discovery on inside revealed information.

Whatever coin

I download the S&L pit and hit go.   This is simply an error bound accounting tool with no entries, but transaction costs zero. Who uses it? Poker players, dark investment pools, central banks and on-line games. It is a  finite fractional approximator of some aggregate ratio algebra, a spreadsheet function.Coinbase does this, not as a currency issuer.

Still at hilarious

WikiLeaks To Countersue Democrats; "Discovery Is Going To Be Amazing Fun"

I am expecting some to call a ridiculous on the walrus sewage. 

More or less opioids?

Four killed by nude gunman at Nashville waffle house... Nude? Large phallic thing? We normally medicate the condition. Maybe he escaped the opioid farm. ' Brings up an issue. Should we medicate the condition more or cure them in padded rooms?

He is into porn

Russian lawyer questions why Mueller hasn’t contacted her

Russian babe lawyer wants back into the news; but we left the ruskie thing, for a while, and we are doing the porn thing.  

Government organizes large groups for mass killings.

Blast at election center in Afghan capital kills more than 50

The Iraqi government also does this, put groups of random citizens in crowds for the ritual suicide blast. It is a cultural thing in bzonkerville.

Antisotomayorizationism

Gorsuch strikes a blow for constitutional equilibrium

The doctrine  of 'make shit up' has a foe. 

Coinbase exits merchant processing

Cheapair.com Considers Bitpay as Coinbase Terminates Merchant Processing Solutions

Never knew Coinbase was in that biz.   Merchants can run their own batching tools and treat Coinbase like 'yet another pit' Coinbase thus leads the merchant to a standard, interoperable escrow net, and young tech companies write merchant barching protocols. Merchants batch up their daily coin entries, farms the processing out. Component orderbook over standard escrow network.

Add some entertainment value

Stormy Daniels's Former Lawyer Cooperating in Cohen Probe

Where is Cole Porter when we  need him.

Scatter-gather society

A variation of hunter gather. These folks gathered seed and scattered it the next sprung. This culture was post glacial, thrived up to 9000 years ago, these came settled ag. All their ag avcivity got washed away during holocene, they were like the south and  central american native cultures.  In asia, the holocene period arrived and settled ag came everywhere would have wiped out traces, except underwater archeology. We see at least large grain warehouses in one spot.

Such a culture must have  filled the gap of rising temperature and melting ice. A highly migratory social structure. From Wiki:

At the end of the last ice age, the North Sea was a great plain, and anthropological material, as well as the remains of animals such as mammoths, are sometimes recovered by trawlers. Also, because human societies have always made use of water, sometimes the remains of structures that these societies built underwater still exist (such as the foundations of crannogs,^[8] bridges and harbours) when traces on dry land have been lost. 

The sea rose fairly slow in human time. They started as migratory scatter gather with migration routes.  Then began to be crowded by the sea and learned settled ag. A hard Malthusian life.  The skill is elementary, kids can do it. So, given a few great springs in a row, we get this huge attack on atmospheric co2, a sudden drop in production. Ag camps expand, we get eight kids per parents, almost unlimited expansion each spring as climate warms, then suddenly the co2 is down, the the glacial cycle gets stuck. Stopping the warming left glacial ice sheets, the up lifting of crust failed and volcanic released ceased, mantle crust cooled just enough.

This equation

The  Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation for chaos boundaries.

Solve the time independent version with u as a tanh function. We get a fourth order polynomial in tanh and we exploit symmetry in the roots.  Look for an equilibriums locally that yields the best fractional approximation. It would be nice to assume superposition among the roots, guessing that we need superposition to have a conversion between vector (symmetry space)  and index space, Just looking at a quantum mechanical form. We are using a curved space that tends toward flat everywhere,  We approximate the implied five color planar separation.

Vector space seems a bit is named to me, it is really the space in which symmetries are laid bare, the minimum fundamental variable set. In this case, it is root space, the behavior of the two or three roots that determine the local conditions to meet the equation. We have root space because we have exploited symmetries, found balance points.

The solutions I describe are both the theory of nothing and the theory of everything. Theory simply gives you great quants (digits) to use if your aggregate does fractional approximations. It is the data geek giving you a general solution for nothing in particular, but it identifies the proper finite element orientation so finite summations meet Ito conditions.

Swamulators can pack it no more

The Economy Is Cooked

Fear not, we deploy better packing technology. 

And the Trump campaign counter sues

Democrats file suit alleging Russia, Trump campaign, WikiLeaks conspired to interfere in 2016 campaign

Both suits hit our gerrymandered, sotomayored federal courts. The  result will ne a huge flood of walrus sewage twenty feet deep.

Ships rearrange

US Sorghum "Armada" Turns Away From China After Tariffs

The ships rearrange schedules after the disruption.  The disruption costs here are low, but they do radiate a bit of Say Shine.

Sandbox don't do this

A violation of Says Law, a human thing. We have controlled bankruptcy.

The simulation is from

Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. But the dissipation, flames shows up in a fourth derivative.  But you see that planar strip seems white?  I didn't read it through. 

Helping Don

DON BOUDREAUX says:

What a U.S. trade deficit does imply is that global investors find the U.S. to be an especially attractive place to invest, [relative to domestic investors]  With the U.S. receiving a net inflow of global capital, the size of the U.S. capital stock grows [more than it would otherwise].  

Bold face mine.

So why do domestic investor prefer less domestic investment? Domestic investors are more familiar with the local scene and are more likely correct.  

Inflation does not compound

A neo-Fisherian experiment that hedges its New Keynesian bets

Long and variable on the interpretation of Fisherbequating relating growth and inflation.

My interpretation is that mids-pricings  of the past get paid off later, the  original monetary shock tending to neutrality.  That is  a Hamiltonian division between wealth on the ledger and wealth still in the pits. We  would expect a semi-random exchange between the two forms of wealth. We get quantum mechanical as the pits stay bounded in matching error.

They have already unsustained

The fiscal trends in the US are unsustainable. They are unsustainable even if the US government defaults.

Guv has already defaulted, it just needs to construct a bankruptcy process.  The bankruptcy devices are sandbox. Sandbox does better accounting.

Guv has a card, monopoly tax dollar for sale with high value and a competitive market  for monetary systems. Guv can partially sell that capability to crypto world, then flat the cryptos. A fair trade, if I must day. Default is Pareto efficient.

Guv tech contribution worth a trillion easy, define the personal card that can manage a prequal system.  Guv program costs drop suddenly, everywhere as the prequal contracts are enforced fairly with early warn. Consumer debt/savings managed optimally, and contracts for flat taxes on crypto. Support smart cash card.

Just observing the pattern of commerce restructuring from 1932 and 1973, my numbers say a opportunistic default of 4T over ten years, inflation under 5% makes the following 50 years a 1.5%  tend to zero and we repeat. Works almost fine in the past and present.

Curve too bulgy

At 2.2 the one year looks better then another set of small, volatile corporations, they get picked on.  Guv shouldn't pay these rates, guv has the  rollovers.  Higher interest charges ripple across S&L everywhere,

We are getting squeezed, part of it unfairly. Guv is due for a crawl back, it is an institutional imbalance being costed unfairly. Then the institutions should bank fairly and produce the more accurate cost schedule. All this, simple sandbox stuff.

Bashing economists, under discussion

• On the rift between economics and everything else - Notes On Liberty

Economists great, pundits bad.  I did it backwards, I looked at economics as the self generated model, how do agents reach minimum state variance.  Then ask if that solution is the better physics model.  I do it that way cause the quanta appear in slow motion. Walmart informs me about charge in physics.

Farmer says:

Walras and Pareto introduced us to homoeconomicus, a human being who springs fully formed into the world at the age of 18 with a complete understanding of his preferences over every conceivable outcome in his extensive choice set. That step enabled us to understand why markets are better ways of organizing economic activity than any other known form of social organization.

I certainly recognize Walras, he defined the single equilibria infinite wealth model.  Great start, Pareto efficient is the general form of adiabatic change, the aggregate can adjust node by node without double spending, essentially.

The idea of Magic Walrus says, look at the huge tradebook error. That determines a finite minimum state approximation to Walras, it is huge.  This is low compexity, a node adjustment in any minimum state representation is large, even when it is step by step Pareto.

HT to Thoma for today's link, live from the sandbox.

Adiabatic change

George W. Evans and Bruce McGough: EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION, OBSERVABILITY AND BACKWARD-STABLE SOLUTIONS

An entropy maximizing system with bound uncertainty has a minimum state solution and can be considered an isomorphic adapter/ It will not jump the concavity (project redundant use of index space? 

They mention feedback to large and too positive.  That is the Hamilton's two peak theory. When we see two peaks prior then the state change was not adiabatic, more than one node changed without the opportunity for local adaption, the index space contained a redundancy, .we had overflow on the system state node, when viewed as flow. All these perspectives being equivalent.

 I think, I haven't gone  through it. Sandbox got this covered because pit boss is an entropy maximizing multicolor separation process  with bound separation error, All this a result of sandbox design seeking this goal.  Another name is no arbitrage cash layer, we know this stuff.

A bit of egads in the bonds

The treasury curve bulging considerable. This bulging scares, it hints of a requant,

Reasonable and legal?

Men arrested at Starbucks refused to 'make a purchase or leave,'

I am confused as the protocol seems  simple, stable. On what basis would a patron choose another outcome?  Would the patrons tell us that they can sit for free indefinitely?

I would  get patron's version of the protocol, before I sent everyone to protool school.

Finally the pension costs

The Citigroup Analysis of the Amazon – USPS Relationship

This scenario is seriously flawed for several reasons. First of all, there’s no reason to believe that such “a day of reckoning” is coming. If anything, we’re heading for a day when Congress recognizes the mess it created with the prefunding mandate and does something to fix it.

Great, but Congress cannot fix that mess ex post because there is a two way trade. The pensions are a liability on past deliveries, and Jeff got the disproportionate share of delivery services. So sure Congress might fix it, and absorb liabilities for the taxpayers. But taxpayers are a different distribution than Jeff.  Even moving forward and covering with future deliveries leaves Jeff the option to use UPS, which would then be cheaper.  

The attempt is to pitch this as a fair trade via magic distribution and adjustments of price fixings in the Swamp., won't work. This  is clearly a 12 billion gift from taxpayers to Jeff. Quit lying about it.

Federal jobs program

Gov. Jerry Brown says Trump administration will fund his National Guard mission — without immigration duties

Never pass up a government goodie, except we are being SALTed for all our prior government goodies. 

Teenagers on meth

By the neighborhood, any race  except blacks, oddly.  Look at the neighborhoods where it is prevalent, crime skyrocket, gangs rampant, women trashed.   Any neighborhood so infiltrated will be a wall to climb out of and welfare assistance barely helpful. That and the opioids make guv assistance have extremely low utility. Cocaine really not a real problem, just a nuisance.

The libertarian says let nature take its course, gate them off. The pragmatist says stop or slow the manufacture of just those two.  Meth heads are quite brain injured, but recoverable, dunno much about opioids, except they hit pain detectors.

Sandbox restructure them

David Hogg calls for investors to boycott BlackRock, Vanguard over gun holdings

But, if they are NRA terrorists, boycott.   

Vanguard becomes a set of two color, automated pits, become a spreadsheet function.

BlackRock goes into the business of asynchronous portfolio strategies over the various escrow nets.   They make trading bots. They sell marginal debt to special members. Their  members trade with the BlackRock crypto badge, their traders get around.

Fun, fun times, welcome aboard.

Secretary of Squeeze

Former Playboy Model Now Free to Discuss Alleged Trump Affair After Settlement

I think this was Trumpsters squeeze for a while.  Trumpster, a bit slutty, does it on the first date.

Immaterial

Bank of Japan Turns Back on State-Issued Cryptocurrency

The yen system has to leak a bit, and sandbox can peg it to a known bound better than Swift based systems.  We are accurate, kids, accurate. 

And the other reason, every banker in town wants escrow net and swap net.

Finally, another in the top three, we solve the regulation bottleneck.

Is there a special rule on demonizing your own race?

You know, the N word.
I do it, white trash, tattood,  worthless meth head, NRA terrorist, welfare bums. See them all the time.  

But blacks I know, even those from the hills, would be bashful about using the words 'white trash'. Is there a special rule?

Central banks screwing up

The Triffin dilemma or Triffin paradox is the conflict of economic interests that arises between short-term domestic and long-term international objectives for countries whose currencies serve as global reserve currencies. This dilemma was first identified in the 1960s by Belgian-American economist Robert Triffin, who pointed out that the country whose currency, being the global reserve currency, foreign nations wish to hold, must be willing to supply the world with an extra supply of its currency to fulfill world demand for these foreign exchange reserves, thus leading to a trade deficit.

The world needs a reserve currency. If the American socialist government  agrees to provide the service, then Congress will run continual deficits justifying by noting the foreign demand.

Free traders foul this up, claiming the reserve currency functions are neutral.  Instead we get  sudden rebalance by  large default, as we did in 1973.  Thus is what I mean when we need the complete set of tariffs, internal and external and  balance the whole set.