IMF Meeting

World Economic Outlook, October 2019Global Manufacturing Downturn, Rising Trade Barriers

Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020 (a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April), reflecting primarily a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing Europe that are under macroeconomic strain. Yet, with uncertainty about prospects for several of these countries, a projected slowdown in China and the United States, and prominent downside risks, a much more subdued pace of global activity could well materialize.

A synchronized slowdown? Seems that way.  Synchronous as in cycle, as in the IMF giving global advice and everyone doing it at the same time. Here is their synchronous advice:

To forestall such an outcome, policies should decisively aim at defusing trade tensions, reinvigorating multilateral cooperation, and providing timely support to economic activity where needed. To strengthen resilience, policymakers should address financial vulnerabilities that pose risks to growth in the medium term. Making growth more inclusive, which is essential for securing better economic prospects for all, should remain an overarching goal.

Mostly bland,  notice the urgency of fiscal stimulus is gone. The IMF has gone through some contortions and got a few clues along the way.

Low inflation globally.  Food prices are nearly  flat  for five years, and oil mostly unchanged but volatile.  Metals are up.  Then government bond rates nearly zero in Europe. Looks increasingly like a small contraction in Europe and deep slowdown in USA and China.

Growth [in EU] is projected at 1.2 percent in 2019 (0.1 percentage point lower than in April) and 1.4 percent in 2020.

1.2% is the Euloer projection (assuming constant returns to scale).  But 1.2% is stall speed for France and Germany.
Emerging markets have the growth:

Growth in the emerging market and developing economy group is expected to bottom out at 3.9 percent in 2019, rising to 4.6 percent in 2020

Japan:

Japan’s economy is projected to grow by 0.9 percent in 2019 (0.1 percentage point lower than anticipated in the April 2019 WEO).

Krugman had no solution for Japan, they have screwed themselves in demographics.

Nothing here that is a crash, assuming that liquidity needs are met. But liquidity needs will not be met everywhere and that means stalls and crashes. (Requants in sandbox theory). If we discount the requant then  Global doldrums is a way to state the outlook. 

But I doubt we can ignore requants.  One of the big problems facing the globe is that Congress may be shut down more than usual. We have these small states on the edge of economic extinction enough to create a Senate crisis.