Monday, October 7, 2019

The revisions become randomized

Nominal GDP Revisions (vs. Others)


Menzie discussing uncertainty in NGDP targeting.  

We end up with an options market on future states of NGDP. The effct is to randomize NGDP about contracted trend.

For example, in the New Fed plan, the NGDP target is a default on 8 trillion in government debt over 15 years. We expect about half the NGDP bets to center around the 15 year point, when the contract is renewed. All the higher frequency bets end up as random noise. There will be a 4 trillion bet placed in and around the 15 year point relative to the original contract.  We have simply shift the planning spectra around to better match generational overlaps so the millenials have twice the bandwidth as the boomers, taking advantage of new tech.


Wheh! That was my longest run on in a year.

How did we suddenly discover 4 trillion in military losses just prior to MMT?  Because the military knows it is MMT time, it is inbred into the system. Hawks wanted to test the system against a real enemy, they did, they discovered a major flaw, drones.  It all happens because it is accounting time.

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