Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Switching point

Treasury Yield Spike Risks Sparking Domino Effect Across Markets
After a late-November lull, 10-year Treasury yields are on the march toward 1% again, leaving investors to contemplate what that might mean for different markets.

Think of a quantum machine that can exist in two states, but not at the same time.

Then consider the ten year over a long time and note the trend.  We will bounce back and forth across that trend. We will do risk on and off. How low will that trend go? I dunno. But the ups and down will not change in relative frequency, but the downs cross zero more often.

This is a leaky beach ball, we suffer long term costs from that trend, the trend causes the ups and down. There is more government inventory rattling around than we can handle.

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