Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Ten year yields up, oil down a bit

 The dollar slide  slows as yields rise. We are cornered. Either we suffer high government rates or high Fed taxes.  Monetarism has run the course. 

The ten year is .93, and 1.0 is the trend line if one looks back.  That is not cheap if we are still working through the deflation of 2015 when oil collapsed. A half point deflation and that .93 looks like 1.4%, the rate we had when Yellen let rates rise.

Money is not cheap, rates are not low. We had oil prices drop from 105 to 30 bucks in 2015. We cannot go back to high oil prices unless we rely on the frackers to return in full force..

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