A new paper by Jason Furman and Larry Summers has attracted a lot of interest. They advocate the increased use of fiscal policy, largely because they view monetary policy as ineffective during recessions:
First, fiscal policy must play a crucial role in stabilization policy in a world where monetary policy can counteract financial instability but otherwise is largely “pushing on a string” when it comes to accelerating economic growth. The roughly 600 basis point reductions in rates that have been found necessary to counteract recessions will be infeasible for the foreseeable future. Limitations on how far interest rates can be reduced given the zero lower bound and the possible inefficacy of lower rates in stimulating demand raise the possibility that full employment may be infeasible with overly restrictive fiscal policies.
from Sumner.
But they cannot say it, it is not in their allowed vocabulary. I know their number, even, they will want a 1.5% double spending tax with a variation for recessions and a quarter point monopoly fee from the central bank. Their numbers will be close to mine, Kevin Drum is way too low at a half point.
I refer to Mankiw; economists are confused and they need me to decode. So stay tuned.
No comments:
Post a Comment